中国新型煤化工产业技术组合及其产能动态优化配置研究：原油价格波动等多重不确定性的视角

Given the resource endowment of China, coal will be the major energy resource for China in the medium and long term. As a result, it is of great importance to secure China’s energy safety by developing the new technology of coal chemical engineering (NTCCE). The development of NTCCE is affected by multiple uncertainties, including the fluctuation of crude oil price and product demand. Since 2015, the price of crude oil has been at low position, which weakened the economic performance of most NTCCE, such as coal-to-liquid. However, some particular NTCCE, such as coal-to-olefin, can still make profit for the enterprise. In this context, our research try to study whether the development of new coal chemical industry can weaken the impact from multiple uncertainties (e.g., crude oil price fluctuation), by optimizing technology portfolio and their dynamic configuration of production capacity. First of all, this project mainly will comb all the NTCCE (including carbon capture and storage), as well as their competing technologies which use oil and other resource as production materials. Furthermore, we will collect and compile the techno-economic data and compile for these technologies. On this basis, we will construct a system optimization model of China’s new coal chemical industry from the medium and long-term perspective, and analyze the influence of China’s new coal chemical industry from multiple uncertainties, including oil price, technological learning, carbon constraints (carbon emissions quota and carbon price) and dynamics of product demand. Then, we will solve the model and analyze the optimal technology portfolio of NTCCE and the dynamic configuration of production capacity under different scenarios. Finally, using the optimization results, including the cost, carbon emissions and crude oil import dependence, we will conduct a multi criteria analysis. On these bases, we will propose policy recommendations for the healthy and green development of new coal chemical industry in China.

中国的资源禀赋决定了煤炭将是我国中长期的主要能源资源，发展新型煤化工技术对保障我国的能源安全具有重要意义。新型煤化工产业受原油价格波动、产品需求变化等多重不确定性的影响。2015年以来，油价持续低位运行，削弱了煤制油等煤化工技术的经济性，但煤制烯烃等技术仍可盈利。因此，本项目主要研究：新型煤化工产业是否可通过优化技术组合及其产能配置来弱化油价波动等不确定性的冲击？本项目拟首先梳理新型煤化工技术（包括耦合CCS的）路径及其竞争技术，收集整理其经济技术数据; 在此基础上，从中长期视角构建中国新型煤化工产业系统优化模型，分析原油价格、技术学习、碳约束（碳排放配额及碳价）、动态需求等不确定性对新型煤化工产业的影响; 求解不同情景下中国新型煤化工产业技术组合及其产能动态配置的优化方案; 最后对优化方案所对应的成本、碳排放、原油进口依存度作多准则分析，为我国新型煤化工产业的健康、绿色发展提供政策建议。

新型煤化工技术对保障我国的能源安全有重要意义，但中国新型煤化工产业受到产品需求、技术学习、原料价格等不确定性的影响。因此本项目以新型煤化工技术为研究对象，研究原油价格波动、产品需求变化以及技术学习等多重不确定性的情况下，新型煤化工产业是否可通过优化技术组合及其产能配置来弱化油价波动等多重不确定性带来的冲击。项目从中长期视角构建中国新型煤化工产业系统优化模型，并以此为基础，分析新型煤化工技术在原油价格、技术学习、碳约束（碳排放配额及碳价）、动态需求等不确定性等因素对新型煤化工产业的影响，进而分析不同情景下中国新型煤化工产业技术组合及其产能动态配置的优化方案。煤制烯烃以及煤制油是本项目研究科学问题的典型案例，也是我国新型煤化工规划的重要问题。本项目把构建的系统优化模型应用于分析不同情境下，中国煤制烯烃以及煤制油行业的优化方案。本项目的代表性成果发表在《Annals of Operations Research》，《Energy Policy》，《Energy Economics》，《Energy》,《管理科学学报》，《系统工程理论与实践》等国际知名期刊。本项目的理论研究成果对能源系统优化优化模型做了拓展，应用研究成果可为新型煤化工产业的发展战略的制定提供一定参考。

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