石化区VOCs无组织污染的高时空分辨率预测技术方法研究

The fugitive volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions from petrochemical industry is one of the important sources of the air pollution for city and region. In recent years, the accident of VOCs leak from petrochemical industry and the complaints from surrounding residents appeared frequently, which made the new challenges of the early warning and crisis management capabilities of the risk of contamination for the government departments. The shortcomings for current forecasting techniques are the simple meteorological factors, the shortage to study the components of fugitive VOCs from petrochemical industry, Low spatial and temporal resolution, lower accuracy, etc., which are unable to meet the demand of the prediction of VOCs pollution in petrochemical area. This project will be based on the VOCs monitoring in petrochemical district, the investigating of petrochemical industry, the survey of land surface, the monitoring and collecting of meteorological data, and the model assessment and technology integration, to study the VOCs pollution characteristics and the fugitive VOCs emission characteristics, and to establish a high spatial and temporal resolution meteorological flow field. And based on the study of the pollution diffusion process, meteorological factors, fugitive VOCs source emissions, surface conditions in different model systems, a forecasting techniques method will be established for pollution problem from petrochemical fugitive VOCs emissions. This method will be able to forecast the high spatial and temporal resolution of VOCs and its components in petrochemical zone for next 24 hours. This study will provide a scientific basis for the establishment of early warning and crisis management for government.

石化行业VOCs无组织排放是影响城市和区域大气环境质量的重要来源之一。近年来，石化行业VOCs泄露事故、周边居民投诉事件频繁出现，对政府部门污染风险预警与危机管理能力提出了新的挑战。目前的预测技术存在气象条件简单、石化VOCs无组织组分针对性不强、时空分辨率较低、误差较大等缺点，无法满足石化区VOCs无组织污染预测预警的需要。本项目将在石化区VOCs污染监测、石化行业调研、下垫面调查、气象数据监测与收集、模型评估和技术集成的基础上，研究石化区VOCs污染特征和VOCs无组织排放特征，建立高时空分辨率气象流场，同时充分吸收不同模型系统对污染扩散过程、气象因素、VOCs无组织源排放、下垫面条件等因素的模拟优势，构建适合石化区VOCs无组织污染预测技术方法，实现对石化区未来24小时高时空分辨率VOCs及其组分污染浓度的模拟预测，该研究将为石化行业VOCs污染预测预警和危机管理提供科学依据。

石化行业VOCs无组织排放是影响城市和区域大气环境质量的重要来源之一。近年来，石化行业VOCs泄露事故、周边居民投诉事件频繁出现，对政府部门污染风险预警与危机管理能力提出了新的挑战。本研究在对石化区VOCs污染特征进行研究分析的基础上，筛选苯系物为石化VOCs无组织污染的关键组分。利用WRF模型系统建立高时空分辨率气象流场，并对SLAB模型进行改进以实现对石化区未来24小时高时空分辨率苯系物浓度的模拟预测。该研究将为石化行业VOCs污染预测预警和危机管理提供科学依据。

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