P2P网络借贷系统协同运营风险预警机制研究

Being an important innovation mode of internet finance, P2P lending can enable financial disintermediation and relive the imbalance between demand and supply in the credit market. However, the booming P2P lending market is often accompanied by a series of financial risks, such as debit default, illegal fund-raising, fund trusteeship and lack of government supervision. To this end, this project will regard P2P lending as an organic whole composed of information sharing and value realization systems. The operating mechanism of information sharing system will be established through the coupling analysis of information transmission, organization coordination and benefit guarantee subsystems among the participants. Through the extraction of the risk operation order parameters of the loan subsystem, the synergism of the system will be obtained by analyzing the value of the system. Based on the analysis of the key influencing factors of system financial risk involved in information sharing and value realization, a synergistic operation risk early warning mechanism of P2P lending system is put forward by means of block chain technology. The results of the model will be simulated and analyzed with the help of Matlab to verify the validity of the model. According to the results of the early warning model, the policies and suggestions for improving the operational risk early warning capability of the P2P lending system in China will be proposed.

P2P网络借贷是互联网金融的重要创新模式，实现了金融脱媒，有效缓解了信贷市场供需结构失衡现状，但在行业蓬勃发展同时也出现了诸如借贷违约、非法集资、资金托管寻租、政府监管不足等系列金融风险。本研究将P2P网络借贷视为一个由信息共享和价值实现系统共同构成的有机整体，通过借贷各参与主体之间的信息传递、组织协调和利益保障子系统的耦合分析建立信息共享系统的运作机制；通过对借贷各子系统风险运营序参量的提取，分析价值实现系统的协同度；基于信息共享和价值实现系统金融风险关键影响因素分析基础上，提出了基于区块链技术的P2P网络借贷系统协同运营风险预警机制；借助Matlab对模型结果进行仿真实验分析，通过与相关指标数据的对比，验证模型的有效性；根据预警模型的结果，提出我国P2P网络借贷系统协同运营风险预警能力提升的政策及建议。

在互联网技术和信息技术的推动下，P2P网络借贷应运而生，但由于目前征信体系不完善，加之市场对接机制不完备，已出现了诸如借贷违约、非法集资、资金托管寻租、政府监管不足等一系列金融风险。为了有效预防P2P网络借贷中存在的金融风险，本研究将P2P网络借贷视为一个由信息共享和价值实现系统共同构成的有机整体，通过借贷各参与主体之间的信息传递、组织协调和利益保障子系统的耦合分析建立信息共享系统的运作机制；通过对借贷各子系统风险运营序参量的提取，分析价值实现系统的协同度；基于信息共享和价值实现系统金融风险关键影响因素分析基础上，提出了基于区块链技术的P2P网络借贷系统协同运营风险预警机制；借助仿真技术对模型结果进行场景模拟及实验分析，通过与相关指标数据的对比，验证模型的有效性；根据预警模型的结果，提出我国P2P网络借贷系统协同运营风险预警能力提升的政策及建议。

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