极端天气事件下电力-天然气综合能源系统的弹性策略研究

More natural gas-fired units will be connected to power grids to use more natural gas, and this will lead to strong coupling between power grids and natural gas grids. In addition, climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which have great impacts on operation of integrated natural gas and power grids. One of important tasks for system operators is to construct operating strategies to deal with these extreme weather events. The concept ‘resilience’ has been proposed, and there are some research studies on power system resilience. However, construction of resilient operating strategies for integrated power and natural gas grids is still in their infancy. Considering the interdependency between natural gas grids and power grids and the uncertain/sequential influences of extreme weather events on natural gas grids and power grids, this project will investigate construction of resilient operating strategies for integrated power and natural gas grids under extreme weather events...Based on the definition of resilience, this project will propose a state-based model for constructing proactive strategies to increase system resilience when an extreme weather event unfolds. First, resilience evaluation metric will be constructed based on sequential security regions of integrated power and natural gas systems. Second, critical components in integrated power and natural gas systems are identified by sensitivity analysis on the resilience evaluation metric. Third, a Markov model including real-time states and sequential impacts of extreme weather events on the integrated system is established to construct resilient operating strategies.

为了规模化利用清洁能源，天然气在能源系统中的占比将越来越高，天然气网络与电力网络的耦合度也将越来越高。同时，考虑极端天气事件强度和频率的增加，极端天气事件对电力-天然气综合能源系统的影响也不容忽视，构建对应的弹性策略是重要任务之一。已有的研究主要针对电力系统，构建电力-天然气综合能源系统弹性策略的方法还处于研究阶段。本项目将研究电力-天然气综合能源系统的弹性策略。.根据弹性的“事件过程中具有适应性”的要求，本项目将构建基于系统状态的主动调度策略以保证在极端天气事件发生过程中的电力-天然气综合能源系统具有较强适应性。首先，基于电力-天然气综合能源系统的模型，利用“时序扩展静态安全域”构建弹性评估指标；其次，基于构建的弹性指标，利用灵敏度方法识别系统的关键性元件；最后，以调度关键性元件、系统负荷等为手段，利用马尔科夫决策过程模型构建基于系统状态的主动调度策略来提高系统应对极端天气事件的能力。

安全可靠的综合能源系统对社会可持续发展具有重要意义，但是频次增加的极端灾害对系统的安全可靠提出了挑战，本项目研究了电力-天然气综合能源系统的弹性策略。根据弹性的事件过程中具有适应性的要求，本项目构建了基于系统状态的主动调度策略以保证在极端天气事件发生过程中的电力-天然气综合能源系统具有较强适应性。研究内容包括：基于电力-天然气综合能源系统的模型，利用序贯扩展静态安全域构建弹性评估指标；基于构建的弹性指标，利用灵敏度方法识别系统的关键性元件；以调度关键性元件、系统负荷等为手段，利用马尔科夫决策过程模型构建基于系统状态的主动调度策略来提高系统应对极端天气事件的能力。解决了状态过程复杂性与模型准确通用性相协调、决策复杂性与弹性策略高效性相协调两个关键问题，为在极端灾害下构建安全可靠的弹性能源系统提供理论支撑和实用化方法。

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