基于波动流理论的供应链质量控制研究

With the rapid development of economic globalization and the increasingly fierce market competition, the competition between corporations has evolved into the competition between supply chains. How to improve quality of the supply chain has become one of the hot topics in the area of operations management. In this project, based on stream of variation theory, we view the supply chain system as a multistage maintainable system and study supply chain quality control problems by using methods of large-scale system methods combined intelligent control, process control technology, Markov chains and change point theory. The main research contents include: analyzing variation propagation mechanism in supply chain system and constructing quality control model for supply chain system; adopting techniques of process control to monitor and diagnose supply chain process to detect assignable causes in the supply chain; building a model for evaluating the performance of supply chain quality control, and continually improving the supply chain performance. On this basis, case studies and empirical analysis are carried out. The research findings of the project not only contribute to the enrichment and development of theoretic researches on supply chain quality management, and provide new methods and technical supports for supply chain quality management, but also have important application value and practical significance in establishing an efficient cooperation mechanisms and good partnership for supply chain members and satisfying customer needs.

随着经济全球化的不断发展与市场竞争的日趋激烈，企业间的竞争已逐步演变成供应链之间的链际竞争，如何提高供应链质量已成为管理领域的热点问题之一。本项目以供应链系统为研究对象，依据波动流理论，将其系统看成串联或混联的多阶段可维护系统，综合运用大系统方法结合智能控制方法、过程控制技术、马尔可夫链和变点理论等方法研究供应链质量控制问题。本项目主要内容包括：分析波动在系统中的传递机理，构建供应链系统质量控制模型；将过程控制技术应用于供应链流程的监控与诊断，以监测系统的异常波动；构建供应链质量控制效果动态评价模式以持续改进供应链绩效；在此基础上，进行案例研究和实证分析。本项目的研究成果不仅将丰富和发展供应链质量管理的理论研究内容，为供应链质量管理提供新的技术和方法，而且对于供应链上企业之间建立高效的合作机制和良好的合作伙伴关系，更好地满足顾客需求具有重要的应用价值与现实意义。

从流程角度将供应链系统可看作为串联和混联的多阶段过程，将质量波动的概念引入到供应链质量管理中。基于波动流理论，将过程控制技术应用于供应链流程的监控与诊断，以监测系统的异常波动；构建供应链质量控制效果动态评价模式以持续改进供应链质量绩效。主要结果包括：结合贝叶斯学习刻画服务质量波动在流程之间的变化，提出总体感知服务质量是由均值和波动共同作用的。针对不同监控对象，提出相应的控制图：以生产提前期为监控对象，设计平方秩和设计变点控制图；提出了自适应指数加权移动平均控制图以监控相继两次“事件”发生的时间间隔；基于似然比的变化点控制图来触发系统中潜在的延迟订单；上述控制图不仅针对特定的偏移，更能对一定范围的偏移大小性能较好。在绩效方面，供应链流程的内部协调和外部协调对供应链绩效有着相互作用的影响，只有当两者平衡时，处于中等到较高水平时，供应链绩效才能达到最佳。关系质量对供应链质量绩效有直接和积极的影响；但在引入中介变量——供应链整合后，关系质量通过供应链整合间接影响供应链质量绩效。这意味着良好的关系质量可以促进供应链整合，最终提高供应链质量绩效。

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