利用光热发电促进间歇性能源消纳的电力系统灵活运行机理与规划方法

With the fast development of wind power (WP) and photovoltaic power (PV) , China power system is experiencing large amounts of WP and PV curtailment due to their intermittency. In the future, the penetration of WP and PV will be even higher and the accommodation of these intermittent energy will be further intensified. Concentrated solar power (CSP) is a new kind of renewable energy technology that utilizes the heat produced by solar radiation to generate electricity. Compared with WP and PV, CSP has the thermal energy storage (TES) to store the heat transfer fluid for later use. The TES not only stabilizes the output of CSP but also makes it flexibly controllable to be able to accommodate intermittent energy such as WP and PV. Based on the flexible operation of CSP, this project will study the modelling and methodology for the power system to use CSP to improve the accommodation of WP and PV. Firstly, from the natural resources point of view, the uncertainty and spatio-temporal correlation among CSP / WP / PV will be studied and the methodologies of their operation simulation will be carried out. Secondly, the model and methodology of the flexible operation of CSP to coordinate the output of WP and PV will be studied. Thirdly, the capacity credit of the joint CSP / WP / PV will be investigated to demonstrate the capacity benefit of CSP. Finally, the optimal planning on the configuration and capacity of CSP that facilitates the accommodation of WP and PV will be studied. The achievements of the project will contribute to future operation and planning of CSP and improve the intermitent energy accomodation for power system.

我国风电与光伏发电发展迅速，其出力间歇性带来的弃风弃光问题十分突出，未来我国风电与光伏在电力系统中渗透率将进一步提高，间歇性能源消纳问题日益严峻。光热发电是新兴的可再生能源发电技术。相比风电和光伏，太阳能光热电站具有储热环节，其出力能够灵活调节，具备稳定发电的能力，为消纳风电与光伏等间歇性能源提供新的途径。本项目将从光热发电灵活运行出发，研究电力系统利用光热电站消纳大规模风电与光伏发电的途径与方法。首先从资源的角度，建立光热/风电/光伏资源时空不确定性及其相关性模型并提出高效的出力时序模拟方法；在此基础上，研究光热电站与风电/光伏发电协同的电力系统灵活运行方法；然后研究光热/风电/光伏综合容量可信度评价方法；最后，研究促进大规模间歇性能源消纳的光热电站内部模块最优容量配比以及电站规划方法。项目研究成果将为光热电站在运行、评估、规划等方面提供理论支撑，提升电力系统对间歇性能源的消纳能力。

我国风电与光伏发电发展迅速，其出力间歇性带来的弃风弃光问题十分突出，未来我国风电与光伏在电力系统中渗透率将进一步提高，间歇性能源消纳问题日益严峻。光热发电是新兴的可再生能源发电技术。相比风电和光伏，太阳能光热电站具有储热环节，其出力能够灵活调节，具备稳定发电的能力，可以为消纳风电与光伏等间歇性能源提供新的途径。本项目从光热发电灵活运行出发，研究了电力系统利用光热电站消纳大规模风电与光伏发电的途径与方法，取得如下四个方面的研究成果：1）采用Copula理论和序列运算方法，结合随机微分方程技术，提出了考虑时空不确定性和相关性的光热集热功率与风电/光伏的时序出力模拟方法；2）建立了含光热电站的大规模新能源并网电力系统的三阶段随机机组组合模型，显著降低了系统总运行成本，减少了风电/光伏弃电量；3）提出了基于可靠性评估的考虑储能的可再生能源可信容量评估方法，建立了包含电量效益、容量效益以及辅助服务效益的光热电站投资效益分析模型；4）建立了计及光热发电灵活性的面向高比例可再生能源并网的电源电网协同规划模型并研发了相应的软件平台。项目研究成果为光热电站在运行、评估、规划等方面提供了理论支撑，提升了电力系统对间歇性能源的消纳能力。依托本项目共发表论文21篇，电力内参1篇，其中SCI收录16篇，EI收录5篇。项目负责人赴国外访问8次，应邀做国际会议分会场主席5次，国际会议特邀报告14次，邀请国外学者来访6人次，相关研究成果被IEEE Spectrum等多家权威科技新闻平台报道。项目研究成果获教育部科技进步一等奖等省部级科技奖励2项，项目负责人获中国电力优秀青年科技人才奖、吴文俊人工智能科学技术奖等多项个人学术奖励。

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