全球价值链视角下中国式装备制造业空心化的形成机理与突破路径研究

Striking up a powerful equipment manufacturing industry, can provide fundamental guarantee for improving China's comprehensive national strength and realizing its sustainable economic development. However, the "hollowing-out", which is caused by low-end global value chain embedded extensive development mode, is increasingly become the bottleneck restriction of industrial security and industrial upgrading in China's equipment manufacturing industry. A Chinese-style equipment manufacturing industry hollowing-out structure model is constructed on the basis of global value chain (GVC) division and complex system brittle theory, around which in-depth studies on hollowing-out formation mechanism, evolution track and breakthrough path are carried out. Firstly, the typical GVC embedded mode is summarized through survey and evaluation on China's equipment manufacturing industry, which is served as the root of hollowing-out problem. Then the connotation of hollowing-out is clearly defined, and the formation mechanism of Chinese-style equipment manufacturing industry hollowing-out is revealed after studying the hollowing-out factors and the brittle relationship among them. Based on this formation mechanism, the evolution track and tendency of Chinese-style equipment manufacturing industry hollowing-out are investigated from the view of complex system entropy change. Accordingly, general idea of breaking through the hollowing-out restriction is put forward, industrial policies are designed and their efficacies are assessed, and then the optimal industrial policy scheme is acquired. Finally, China's large airliners manufacturing industry is selected as a case, in which the above mechanism, models and industrial policies are examined and applied.

建立起强大的装备制造业，是提高中国综合国力、实现经济持续发展的根本保证。源于全球价值链低端嵌入粗放发展模式所造成的空心化，却日益成为中国装备制造业产业安全和产业升级的瓶颈制约。本项目以全球价值链分工和复杂系统脆性理论为基础，构建中国式装备制造业空心化结构模型，围绕这一结构模型开展空心化形成机理、空心化演化轨迹和空心化突破路径的深入研究。首先通过调研和评价总结出中国装备制造业嵌入全球价值链的典型模式，作为空心化之根源；接着界定空心化内涵，研究空心化因子及因子间的脆性联系，揭示中国式装备制造业空心化形成机理；在此基础上从复杂系统熵变视角，研究中国式装备制造业空心化的演化轨迹及趋势；进而提出突破空心化制约的总体思路，设计产业政策并对其效果进行评价，获得突破空心化制约的产业政策组合优选方案；最后以中国大型客机制造业为案例，对本项目所揭示的机理、构建的模型及提出的产业政策方案进行检验与应用。

建立起强大的装备制造业，是提高中国综合国力、实现经济持续发展的根本保证。源于全球价值链低端嵌入粗放发展模式所造成的空心化，却日益成为中国装备制造业产业安全和产业升级的瓶颈制约。本项目以全球价值链分工理论为基础，结合对于中国装备制造业产业竞争力、国际竞争力、全球价值链地位的分析和比较，指出中国装备制造业发展中存在的问题，即中国式空心化问题；接着从中国式装备制造业空心化内涵、空心化形成机理、空心化程度判定、空心化演化轨迹、空心化突破路径等角度，对全球价值链中中国装备制造业的空心化问题及其解决方案进行深入研究，并提出相关对策建议；最后以中国航空装备制造业为典型案例，对项目研究中所揭示的机理、构建的模型及提出的突破路径进行检验与应用。本项目研究为促进中国装备制造业在全球价值链中的健康发展提供了决策借鉴。

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