城市基础设施中物质代谢的时空演变及削减其资源环境影响的对策研究

Urban infrastructures are the fresh and bones to support the development of a city. However the material metabolism accompanying the rapid growth of infrastructures has also caused a number of impacts on resources and environment. Thus, the understanding of the process and driving factors of material metabolism, and the proposal of policies mitigating those environmental impacts have become increasingly important and vital for the sustainable development. In this study, we choose Shanghai as a case. By integrating interdisciplinary methods and techniques such as material flow analysis model, system dynamics model, cellular automata model, remote sensing and GIS, and econometrics methods, we aim at revealing the spatio-temporal characteristics and both socioeconomic and natural driving factors of material metabolism in urban infrastructures during 1930-2014, and evaluating the impacts on resource extraction, construction waste generation and carbon emissions. Moreover, we assess the resource-saving and emission-reduction effects of policies in the aspects of circular economy, technology and urban planning through scenario analysis, and exploring the management ways of both structure and spatial pattern of urban infrastructures toward a sustainable development. The results of this study are expected to help understanding the process and mechanism of urban material metabolism, and to provide quantitative and visualized data for decision making of the construction of urban infrastructure management system with low impacts on resource and environment.

城市基础设施是保障城市正常运转的血肉组织，但其快速发展过程中的物质代谢活动也对资源和环境产生了一系列的负面影响。理解其物质代谢过程和驱动因素并制定可持续的管理对策对生态文明建设至关重要。本研究拟选取上海市作为研究对象，采用物质流分析、系统动力学、元胞自动机、遥感和GIS技术、计量统计等多学科多技术交叉的研究手段，分析1930-2014年基础设施中物质代谢的时间特别是空间演变特征及社会经济与自然地理驱动因素，评价物质流入、存量、排出基础设施的过程对资源消耗以及对建筑废弃物和碳排放的影响，在此基础上，通过情景分析法模拟循环经济、技术进步、空间规划等调控政策的节约资源和减少环境排放的效果，综合探讨城市基础设施在数量结构和空间分布上的可持续管理对策。研究成果可为城市基础设施的物质代谢过程和驱动机制研究提供理论支撑，并为构建可持续的基础设施管理体系提供定量且空间可视化的决策支持。

城市基础设施是保障城市正常运转的血肉组织，但其快速发展过程中的物质代谢活动也对生态环境产生了一系列的负面影响，但由于传统物质流分析方法的局限和数据限制，过去的物质流分析主要集中在国家和区域尺度，对于城市甚至更精细空间尺度的研究十分缺乏。理解其物质代谢过程和驱动因素并制定可持续的管理对策对制定可持续的城市与资源规划至关重要。本研究拟选取上海市作为研究对象，提出物质流与地理信息系统相耦合的建模方法，构建了1930-2015年基础设施物质代谢时空信息数据库，对上海市近85年的基础设施物质代谢的时间特别是空间演变特征及驱动因素进行了分析，评价物质流入、存量、排出基础设施的过程对资源消耗、碳排放以及城市宜居性的影响，在此基础上，提出了相应的基础设施和城市规划政策建议。研究成果可为城市尺度的物质代谢过程和驱动机制研究提供方法支撑，并为构建可持续的基础设施管理体系提供定量且空间可视化的决策支持。

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