面向制度模拟的区域用水调控智能方法及应用

The adaptability regulation of regional water consumption oriented to the Strictest Water Resources Management model, as the key problem needed to be solved for ensuring the sustainable development of economic society, is also the important scientific frontier for researching the interaction between the Strictest Water Resources Management policy and national economic development. Taking the regulation process of regional water consumption adaptability as the research object, by physically analyzing the structural characteristics, evolution mechanism and management strategy for the uncertain system of regional complex water resources, the response relationship between the total water consumption amount, water consumption behavior, water consumption structure and national economic development will be revealed, the simulation model system of regional Strictest Water Resources policy based on System Dynamics, Agent and CGE theory can be established, the theoretical system for intelligent regulation of regional water utilization adaptability integrated the driving factors recognition of water demand, simulation of water consumption policy and regulation of water consumption behavior will be proposed, and then the regulation scheme unified controlling the total water consumption and sewage discharge amount for regional water consumption adaptability can be established, which has important theoretical significance and wide application prospect in the intelligent simulation and regulation researching field of complex water resources system, and would supply scientific basis for improving the water consumption structure, accelerating the industrial upgrading, optimizing the economic development model and realizing the regional sustainable development.

最严格水资源管理模式下的区域用水适应性调控是保障经济社会可持续发展亟需解决的关键问题，也是研究最严格水资源管理制度与国民经济发展相互作用的重要科学前沿。项目以区域用水适应性调控过程为研究对象，通过物理解析区域复杂水资源不确定性系统的结构特征、演化机制及管理策略，揭示用水总量与用水行为、用水结构及国民经济发展之间的响应关系，建立基于系统动力学、Agent与CGE集成理论的最严格水资源管理制度仿真模型体系，提出集用水需求驱动因子识别、用水制度模拟、用水行为调控于一体的区域用水适应性智能调控的理论体系，获得区域用水总量与排污总量统一控制的用水适应性调控方案。为改善用水结构、推进产业升级、优化经济发展模式、实现区域可持续发展提供科学依据，在复杂水资源系统仿真模拟与智能调控研究领域具有重要的理论意义和广阔的应用前景。

面向最严格水资源管理制度模拟的区域产业用水适应性调控研究是保障区域经济社会可持续发展亟需解决的关键问题，也是研究复杂水资源系统与国民经济发展互馈机制的重要科学前沿。为有效描述和科学解析区域产业用水适应性调控过程及其不确定性，采用水利科学、系统科学及智能科学相交叉的定性定量综合集成研究途径，提出了基于Kaya恒等式及LMDI方法的区域产业用水驱动因子识别、驱动效应测度及水资源分区管理模式制定的模型体系，建立了基于集对分析（SPA）与系统动力学（SD）、投入产出理论（IO）、多智能体（Agent）及遗传算法（GA）等智能方法综合集成的区域复杂水资源系统仿真模拟、产业用水系统与社会经济发展协调评价及适应性调控的理论模型体系及应用模式体系，可系统解析区域产业用水过程不确定性系统的结构特征、演化机制及其调控策略。研究成果可为保障区域产业用水复杂系统的健康结构和功能、协调区域产业用水过程与经济社会的互馈协调发展模式、促进区域水资源高效利用提供了坚实的科学基础和重要的决策依据，在复杂水资源系统仿真模拟与智能调控研究领域具有重要的理论意义和广阔的应用前景。

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