恩施小气候特征对农林害虫控制影响的生态模型研究

Based on the overall planning of green ecological construction and innovative pesticide management mechanism to protect the quality of agricultural products and ecological security in Enshi, how to overcome the huge challenge for the agriculture and forestry pest control objective and decision making within next five years produced by microclimate characteristics, “one mountain has four seasons, different climates within five kilometers”, and the unique geographical location and climatic conditions, it is necessary to make a systematic and in-depth study with mathematical models, theoretical analyses and numerical techniques. Therefore, this project will establish the dynamic evolution equation of agricultural and forestry pest in Enshi area, with aims to study the time difference of agricultural and forestry pest outbreak in mountainous area, and to analyze the influence of different altitudes on the time and the generation difference of the agricultural and forestry pest from the beginning to the peak to the end. The effects of regional differences and climate changes, especially temperature and rainfall on the control of agricultural and forestry pests will discussed in more detail, and the feasibility of the implementation of the comprehensive index, such as the popularization rate of environmental friendly pesticides, the popularization and application of biological pesticides, the coverage rate of biological control and the qualified rate of pesticide residues, will be investigated. By employing the methods developed in this project, we will address the comprehensive prevention and the optimal control scheme for the multiple selenium enriched tea pests. At the same time, the methods and skills for analyzing the complex nonlinear and non-smooth systems will be developed. There is no doubt that this project has important practical significance and theoretical innovation.

在恩施“山更青、水更绿、土更净”绿色生态建设的总体规划和创新农药管理机制保障农产品质量及生态安全意见下，如何克服“一山有四季，十里不同天”的小气候特征以及独特的地理位置和气候条件对恩施州农林害虫未来五年控制目标、控制策略、决策依据的实现与实施带来的巨大挑战，亟需借助数学模型、发展理论分析和数值技巧进行系统深入研究。因此，本项目将建立符合恩施复杂地域气候条件下的农林害虫动态演化方程，研究山区农林害虫爆发的时间差异，分析不同海拔高度对农林害虫从始见、高峰到终见各个时期发生的时间、世代差异的影响。探讨区域差别与气候变化，特别是温度、雨量等气候条件对农林害虫控制的影响，以及环境友好型农药普及率、生物农药推广应用率、生物物理防治覆盖率、农药残留合格率等综合指标实施的可行性。应用上探讨富硒茶虫害最佳的综合防控方案，理论上丰富复杂非线性、非光滑系统的研究方法与技巧，具有重要的现实意义和理论创新。

本项目将建立符合恩施复杂地域气候条件下的农林害虫动态演化方程，利用连续动力系统、离散动力系统，脉冲动力系统、混杂动力系统以及非光滑的Filippov系统，探索农作物-害虫-天敌系统的最优管理策略并借助理论分析方法评估影响害虫治理的关键因素，应用上探讨富硒茶虫害最佳的综合防控方案，理论上丰富复杂非线性、非光滑系统的研究方法与技巧，具有重要的现实意义和理论创新。所得结果为农业部门防治害虫提供理论依据和定量参考。. 本项目的研究已达到了预期目标，理论上丰富了脉冲动力系统和非光滑Filippov系统的研究方法，获得了一系列的研究成果，并在生物数学较高水平的国际杂志上发表。到目前为止，本项目在SCI源刊上共发表论文17篇，其中15篇已经被检索。

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