生态流空间通达性视角下财政转移支付对农户生计作用机制与调控——以国家重点生态功能区为例

The Fiscal Transfer Payment is an important measure to solve the mismatch among ecological environment protection cost, ecological benefit and regional people’ livelihood quality in ecological function areas, the mechanism of which is essentially a policy system design of regulating the positive externalities generated by ecological and environmental protection or negative externalities generated by ecological and environmental destruction. In this project, the mechanism and Regulation study of fiscal transfer payment for farmers’ livelihood is made by building the system dynamics mode with the target of ecosystem health development and sustainable livelihood of farmers in the view of ecological flow spatial accessibility based on county (district) in the National Key Ecological Function Areas. Firstly, study samples are selected and the change characteristics of its ecological environment, the farmers’ livelihood and fiscal transfer payment are comparatively analyzed. Then, the impact of fiscal transfer payment on farmers' livelihood is studied. Thirdly, the system dynamics mode is built to study the mechanism and regulation of fiscal transfer payment for farmer’s livelihoods in the view of ecological flow spatial accessibility and the interactions and quantitative relationships between ecological environment, the livelihood and fiscal transfer payment are analyzed. Lastly, the genetic algorithm is integrated to the system dynamics model to reveal the most reasonable fiscal transfer payment policy of achieving the target of the optimal ecological flow spatial accessibility and sustainable farmers’ livelihood. The research results will help to promote environmental protection and people's livelihood improvement in the national key ecological function areas, and to promote the development of human - earth system research to a certain extent.

财政转移支付是解决生态功能区生态环境保护成本与生态效益及区域民生质量错配问题的重要措施，其机制实质上是规范生态环境保护产生的正外部性或生态环境被破坏产生的负外部性的政策体系设计。本项目拟从系统的角度出发，以国家重点生态功能区生态系统健康发展和农户生计可持续为研究目标，基于区县层面进行生态流空间通达性视角下财政转移支付对农户生计作用机制与调控研究。首先选取样本，对比分析其生态环境、农户生计与财政转移支付的时空差异，继而研究财政转移支付对农户生计的影响，并在此基础上构建生态流空间通达性视角下财政转移支付对农户生计作用机制动力学模型，研究生态、生计和财政转移支付的相互作用与定量关系，继而在系统动力学模型优化中融入遗传算法，揭示生态流空间通达性最优与农户生计可持续的财政转移支付政策选择。其研究成果有助于推动国家重点生态功能区生态环境保护和民生改善目标的实现，将在一定程度上促进人地系统研究的发展。

贫困人口地理分布有着明显的特征，我国山区大多数是贫困人口、少数民族人口聚集的地区和生态环境脆弱的地区，贫困问题更加显著。山区财政支出政策应以实现农户生计可持续和生态环境保护为目标。以四川省甘孜州、阿坝州和凉山州为研究区域，基于区县层面，探讨财政支出对农户生计资本的影响，并从保护生态环境视角，总结有助于实现农户生计可持续的政策安排和相关措施。主要结论如下：（1）四川省三州生态流空间通达性高值区和低值区具有集聚特征。2010年和2015年四川省三州生态高阻力分布呈明显的4个高值区，为凉山州社会经济发展的核心地带安宁河谷流域，以及甘孜州的丹巴、道孚、甘孜、德格、炉霍县和阿坝州的红原县。生态低阻力值区域主要分布在三州西南部，是生态环境较好的区域；（2）四川省三州农户生计资本水平具有显著的时空差异。2010-2015年四川省三州农户生计资本水平由高到低依次为凉山州、甘孜州和阿坝州；（3）四川省三州财政支出具有显著的时空差异，且随着时间呈现不断上升的趋势；（4）四川省三州县域生态流空间通达性与农户生计资本耦合协调度较低，但2015年与2010年相比耦合协调度有所提升；（5）农林水事支出、教育支出和医疗支出对农户生计资本水平有显著正向影响，一般公共服务支出、农林水事支出、医疗卫生支出和生计策略对生态流空间通达性有显著负向影响；（6）时间对农户生计策略有显著负向影响，对农户生计资本水平有显著正向影响，即随着时间的推进，外出务工人口越来越多，非农收入占比升高，越趋向于非农为主型生计，农户生计资本水平逐渐提升。

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