巴黎协定下中国农业碳排放权省域分配及协同减排策略研究

In order to cope with global climate change, China has set a target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60% ~ 65% in 2030 compared with 2005. In order to achieve this goal, we should not only focus on solving the problems of high energy consumption and high emissions in industry, but also conform to the requirements of the development of the times and accelerate the pace of carbon emission reduction in agriculture. At present, although many scholars focus on the issue of agricultural carbon emission reduction, they mainly focus on the measurement of its emission reduction potential and the design of emission reduction strategies, and seldom consider regional differences and coordinated progress among regions. In view of this, this project will, on the basis of investigating the current characteristics of China's agricultural carbon emissions, carry out systematic research on the provincial distribution and spatial balance of agricultural carbon emission rights, as well as the construction of regional coordinated emission reduction strategies. Specifically, first of all, scientifically measure China's agricultural carbon emissions and clarify its current characteristics and spatial effects. Then, measure the total amount of China's agricultural carbon emission rights and complete the provincial distribution of agricultural carbon emission rights based on the different cost of emission reduction in different regions. Next, clarify the initial spatial balance of agricultural carbon emission rights in various provinces and regions, and comprehensively evaluate the pressure of agricultural carbon emission reduction in areas where there is a shortage. Finally, on the basis of determining the appropriate combination of provinces and regions, the construction of regional cooperative emission reduction mechanism for agricultural carbon emissions and the design of emission reduction policies are completed.

为了应对全球气候变化，我国已确定2030年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放较2005年减少60%-65%的目标。为了实现该目标，除了要着力解决工业的高能耗与高排放问题，还需顺应时代发展要求，加快推进农业碳减排步伐。目前虽有不少学者围绕农业碳减排问题展开探讨，但主要聚焦于其减排潜力的测度与减排策略的设计，而较少考虑地区差异以及区域间的协同共进。鉴于此，本项目将在考察我国农业碳排放现状特征的基础上，围绕农业碳排放权的省域分配、空间余额比较以及区域协同减排策略构建展开系统研究。具体而言，首先科学测算我国农业碳排放量，厘清其现状特征与空间效应；然后，测度我国农业碳排放权总量，并基于各地区减排成本的不同完成农业碳排放权的省域分配；接下来，明晰各省区农业碳排放权的初始空间余额，并综合评估匮乏地区的农业碳减排压力；最后，在确定合适省域组合的基础上，完成农业碳排放区域协同减排机制的构建与减排政策的设计。

本研究瞄准当前农业资源与环境经济前沿问题，在厘清我国农业碳排放现状特征的基础上，以农业碳排放权为切入点展开深入系统地研究，进而完成农业碳减排补偿机制与政策支持体系的构建，为我国科学应对温室气体减排压力、着力实现农业生产低碳转型等一系列实际工作提供了重要支撑。取得的重要结论有：①2005—2019年中国农业碳排放总量处于下降态势但存在年际波动，农业碳排放强度呈持续下降态势。2019年农业碳排放省际差异较大且以湖南居首北京最末，各省份农业碳排放强度总体呈现“西高东低”的态势。农业碳排放受市场和政府两类因素的共同影响，其中产业集聚、农业发展水平等多个因素在影响农业碳排放上表现出明显的空间溢出效应。②2017—2030年期间，全国有10个省份农业碳排放权初始空间余额表现出盈余状态，其中以山东最高；而余下省份则表现出了一定程度的匮乏。进一步对匮乏省份农业碳减排压力评估发现，西藏所面临的减排压力要明显高于其他省份。③以各地农业碳排放权初始余额作为依据构建了农业碳排放权奖惩制度，而后将其与农业碳汇补贴制度相结合，在此基础上发挥市场与政府的合力形成了新型农业碳减排补偿机制。进一步通过实证检验发现，河南以微弱优势占据补偿金额的榜首位置，而西藏、青海和福建等3地不仅无补偿，还需承担数额不低的罚金。④为了更好地推进农业碳减排，可考虑从以下三方面着手：一是制定农业碳减排规划，完善各项政策保障措施。实践中相关规划需目标清晰且履行问责制，同时强化财政支持与金融支持力度。二是创新区域试点示范，搭建农业碳减排区域协同推进平台。实践中需不断规范涉农主体生产行为、突出典型带动，同时注重省区整合。三是洞悉涉农主体技术需求，积极引导农业生产低碳化。实践中需做好农村调研，研发并推广与涉农主体需求相匹配的农业低碳生产技术，同时要做好宣传引导并强化各类技术培训。

内容获取失败，请点击重试