应对跨国公司潜在竞争：基于大数据的竞争信号量化体系和我国本土企业策略研究

China has been striving to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the last decades, as FDI proves to contribute to productivity growth and economic development. However, as Chinese firms rapidly grow in competitiveness, the relationship between foreign multinational and Chinese firms has evolved from a traditional focus on production linkage and technology spillover to increasing direct competition. In the project, we ask a new question: How do Chinese firms respond to the threat of foreign multinational competition? An extensive body of literature assesses the impact of competition from globalization on the productivity and organization of domestic firms, emphasizing the technology spillover of foreign multinationals. But relatively little analysis has investigated the strategic responses of domestic firms to the threat of foreign competition, a distinctively different mechanism through which domestic firms could be influenced by globalization. In this study, we quantify foreign multinational competition threats by exploring Big Data and recording news of multinational firms appearing in worldwide news sources since 2000. We will answer the following questions: (1) How do Chinese firms respond to the threats of foreign multinational competition? Which strategies are most effective? (2) Does firm heterogeneity play a role in firm strategic response? (3) How do productivity gains from responding to FDI threats compare to the firm productivity gains from (actual) foreign competition? The study will convey important policy implications, informing how the specific form of the policies should evolve over time with the development of foreign competition threats.

引进外资长久以来对我国经济增长、产业结构优化起着重要作用。我国外资引进逐渐从重视数量转变为对质量的追求，外资产业结构从劳动密集型向资本技术密集型转变；我国企业与外资企业的关系也从追求技术溢出转变为激烈市场竞争，这为我们研究外资和我国本土企业新型战略关系提出新挑战。本课题拟将外商投资在时间上向前拓展，使用大数据文本识别技术，“五维度” 量化外资企业投资信号，建立首个跨年度、跨行业、跨城市外商潜在投资数据库，以此为基础分析外商潜在“面对面”同行业竞争对我国本土企业生产效率的影响，并进一步探究我国企业应对外商竞争的具体措施和动态过程。并展开分析我国不同区域、不同行业、不同技术水平的本土企业应对同行业外资潜在竞争所采取措施的差异性。最后，全面解析外商投资不同阶段对我国同行业本土企业生产率水平的不同影响，以此为依据探究政府在外商投资不同阶段应采取何种外资和产业政策。

引进外资长久以来对我国经济增长、产业结构优化起着重要作用。我国外资引进逐渐从重视数量转变为对质量的追求，外资产业结构从劳动密集型向资本技术密集型转变；我国企业与外资企业的关系也从追求技术溢出转变为激烈市场竞争，本课题的研究意义就是回答外资企业和我国本土企业新型战略关系的新问题。本课题研究工作总体按计划有序进行。1）结合了近年来大数据技术在经济学领域的相关应用，使用大数据文本识别技术，量化了外资企业投资信号，建立并发布了我国首个跨年度、跨行业、跨城市外商潜在投资数据库。2）研究工作实现了从“大数据量化”向“经济应用”的跨越。分析了外商潜在“面对面”同行业竞争对我国本土企业生产效率的影响，结论表明：外资企业的投资信号会激发我国本土企业的自主创新与产业结构调整，并推动了企业全要素生产率的增加，而企业具体的应对措施受到企业所在区域、行业与企业自身技术水平等因素的综合影响。3）项目具有重要的现实意义和政策意义，通过分析不同阶段的外商投资对我国相关行业本土企业生产率水平的不同影响，以此为依据探讨了我国各级政府在外商投资不同阶段应采取何种外资和产业政策。

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