天然气消费精细化预测框架下供输系统可靠性分析及供需失衡对策研究

In order to balance the supply and demand of natural gas and the security of supply and demand, this study aims at the characteristics of phased problems of natural gas system during the transitional period in China. Based on a hybrid-refined forecasting method of demand-side and the market-oriented Demand-Side Management strategy, this paper give a countermeasure to the imbalance between supply and demand, and supply an optimization result on reliability assessment of supply and transportation system with security and stability .First of all, innovating the multi-source information fusion technology, constructing frontier analysis and forecasting model base and integrating, the article build an innovative system of natural gas consumption with the hybrid-refined forecasting method. This model can analysis the natural gas consumption law of entire network, each node on the backbone network and main industry, and provide refined prediction. Secondly, the author improve and innovate the previous research based on both the measurement of energy parity structure under multi-criteria and natural gas price function. Analysis of the influence of two types "two-track" pricing model helps to improve the current natural gas price mechanism and balance supply and demand. At the same time, measures are given to control the imbalance between supply and demand on interruptible load strategy. Finally, the paper expand the application of frontier theory in the natural gas system, and build an optimal model for reliability assessment of natural gas supply and storage-side multi-state system. It provides a theoretical basis and reference for the policy refinement of natural gas utilization.

本研究针对我国过渡期天然气系统的阶段性问题特征，以天然气市场供需平衡及供输安全稳定为目标,以需求侧精细化分析预测为突破口及分析基础，以市场导向的需求侧管理策略为手段，给出天然气市场供需失衡应对策略及供输系统可靠性评估优化结果。首先，创新多源信息融合技术，搭建前沿分析预测模型库并进行选择和综合集成，构建天然气消费精细化分析预测模型框架，对全网、各节点区域和主要行业的天然气消费规律进行多频度分析及预测。其次，从综合多判别标准下的能源比价结构测算及天然气价格函数构建两方面改进和创新了以前的研究，并协同对两种“双轨制”定价模式的影响效应分析，完善当前天然气价格机制以应对供需失衡问题；同时，对可中断负荷策略进行分析设计给出应对供需失衡的调控手段。最后，拓展可靠性理论前沿在天然气产业中的应用，构建天然气供输侧多态系统可靠性评估优化模型体系。相关成果将为加快推进天然气利用的政策细化提供理论依据及借鉴。

本研究针对我国过渡期天然气系统的阶段性问题特征，以天然气市场供需平衡及供输安全稳定为目标,以需求侧精细化分析预测为突破口及分析基础，以市场导向的需求侧管理策略为手段，给出天然气市场供需失衡应对策略及供输系统可靠性评估优化结果。首先，创新多源信息融合技术，搭建前沿分析预测模型库并进行选择和综合集成，构建天然气消费精细化分析预测模型框架，对全网、各节点区域和主要行业的天然气消费规律进行多频度分析及预测。其次，从综合多判别标准下的能源比价结构测算及天然气价格函数构建两方面改进和创新了以前的研究，并协同对两种“双轨制”定价模式的影响效应分析，完善当前天然气价格机制以应对供需失衡问题；同时，对可中断负荷策略进行分析设计给出应对供需失衡的调控手段。最后，拓展可靠性理论前沿在天然气产业中的应用，构建天然气供输侧多态系统可靠性评估优化模型体系。相关成果将为加快推进天然气利用的政策细化提供理论依据及借鉴。

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