基于多参照点的库存和供应链行为决策研究

This project intends to study inventory and supply chain decisions with decision-making behavior considered, in an uncertain environment of demand. We take particular interests in how target, bottom line, and status quo profits as references influence decision-making process, as well as inventory and supply chain optimal decisions. Starting with a newsvendor model, we adopt tri-reference point theory to characterize the decision making process relating to those reference profits, and further study their impacts on newsvendor order quantity. We also extend the study to a supplier-retailer structure, discussing their impacts to retailer’s ordering quantity decisions, supplier’s pricing decisions, as well as overall performances of the system, under different supply chain contracts. Furthermore, considering a decentralized system underperforms a centralized system, we propose behavior-based contracts and incentive mechanism to improve both the agents' and the supply chain’s performance, so as to achieve coordination. Lastly, we conduct lab experiments to verify that the tri-reference point assumption based newsvendor order quantities match the experiment observations, so as to estimate the parameters of the tri-reference point model and further apply to guide practice. The research is conducted with modeling analysis as well as experimental approaches. The outputs are expected to contribute to the behavioral inventory and supply chain theories, but also to provide practitioners guidance to avoid decision mistakes.

本项目从行为视角审视需求不确定环境下库存和供应链的风险决策问题，特别地，探讨目标、底线和现状等多个利润参照点对管理者个体决策行为和库存优化决策的影响，以及对供应链成员优化决策的影响。研究采用行为决策领域最新的三参照点理论，首先以报童模型为起点，深入理解和刻画三参照点行为假设对于报童订货决策的影响。进一步拓展到供应链环境，探讨不同供应链契约和风险分担下，底线、目标、现状等参照点对零售商订货决策、供应商定价决策、以及供应链整体绩效的影响。在此基础上，设计基于参照点信息和行为参数的契约和激励机制以改善供应链绩效，乃至实现供应链协同。项目最后通过行为实验验证理论预测结果，并基于实验数据估算行为模型参数，以应用到库存和供应链管理实践。本项目以建模分析和运筹优化方法为主、行为实验研究为辅。研究成果既是对行为运作管理研究的有效补充，又有利于企业管理者了解并避免决策误区，为库存和供应链管理实践提供指导。

本项目从行为视角审视需求不确定环境下库存和供应链的风险决策问题,特别地,探讨目标、底线和现状等多个利润参照点对管理者库存决策、以及供应链决策的影响。研究以报童问题为基准模型，引入风险行为决策领域的三参照点理论框架，通过目标、现状以及底线等参照利润区分利润结果空间，并以不同的心理效用函数对其刻画，由此体现其参照效应。以期望效用为目标，进一步分析需求不确定环境下多参照点对于管理者订货决策的影响。项目基于参照点的不同组合对基准模型开展探索研究：如参照点外生、内生设定；单个、多个参照点组合对于行为决策偏差的影响；并深入分析多参照点之间或竞争、或合作关系。研究进一步拓展到供应链环境,探讨不同供应链契约和风险分担下,参照点对零售商库存决策、供应商契约设计、以及供应链整体绩效的影响。在此基础上,设计合理的决策偏差纠错机制、以及供应链契约和激励机制以改善绩效。最后实验研究映证并拓展理论发现。研究成果弥补了行为运作管理多参照点研究的空白,为企业管理者了解决策误区并预防纠错提供启示,具有重要理论与现实意义。

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