生育率、政府健康支出和实际汇率——微观基础的理论和实证研究

Fertility change is an important characteristic of our population changes for a long time, and Government health spending on human capital is also rising. Fertility rates, Government health expenditure affect aggregate demand and aggregate supply and further on external balance and real exchange rates. In the framework of intertemporal overlapping model with the budget constraints and the government's budget constraints based on the theory of the flow-stock consistency, this project analyzes the consumption optimization of the representative agent, including child, adult, and ageing consumption, exploring the effects of fertility, government health expenditure on real exchange rate. Combined with the producer optimization, the project studies the transmission mechanism of fertility, government health spending and heritage bequest on the real equilibrium exchange rate, and constructs the general equilibrium real exchange rate model. Further the project will discuss the transmission mechanism of the effects of fertility, government health expenditure on real exchange rate under the sticky-price model, that is, to explore real exchange rate changes from a perspective of new open macroeconomics. On this basis, this project will make numerical simulation and empirical research on the model by the intra-country panel data to analyze the direction and magnitude of the equilibrium real exchange rate affected by fertility, health expenditures, and heritage bequest. Finally, the policy implications are obtained by comparing and evaluating theoretical and empirical results.

长期以来生育率变化是我国人口变动的一个重要特征，我国政府人力资本健康支出也在不断上升。生育率、政府健康支出影响一国总需求和总供给，进而影响对外均衡和实际汇率。本课题将在跨期迭代模型的框架内，基于流量存量一致性理论确定跨期迭代模型的预算约束和政府预算约束，进而分析典型代理人最优化下的消费，包括儿童消费、成年消费、老龄消费，考察生育率、政府健康支出等对内部实际汇率的影响。同时结合生产者最优化，研究生育率、政府健康支出等对实际均衡汇率影响的传导机制，构建一般均衡的实际汇率理论模型。进一步本课题将分析粘性价格下的跨期生育率、政府健康支出等对实际汇率的影响机制，这是从新开放宏观经济学角度考察实际汇率变动。在此基础之上，本课题对该模型将进行数值模拟和跨国面板的实证研究，考察生育率、健康支出等对均衡实际汇率的影响方向和大小。最后本课题比较和评估理论和实证结果，得出相应的政策含义。

本课题主要研究生育率、政府健康支出与实际汇率之间的关系，考察生育率、政府健康支出对我国实际汇率的影响。该课题的研究主要包括：一是重点研究我国生育率、政府健康支出对人民币实际汇率的影响机制及人民币汇率的长期趋势。二是以该课题研究为基础，继续研究我国均衡实际汇率的变动，这也是负责人一直研究的重点问题。三是该课题研究服务于国际金融教学。.课题组取得了一些相应的成果，包括著作、论文和一些经济专栏等，涵盖了以上三方面内容。该课题的研究有重要的理论和实践意义，一是我国逐步放开生育率，研究生育率对实际汇率的影响，考察人民币长期汇率变动有利于更好地实现我国外部均衡。二是结合我国人民币汇率形成机制的改革，考察均衡实际汇率的变动，有利把握我国人民币汇率改革的步骤。三是人民币汇率的研究也是我们的教学内容之一，有利于学生们学习和思考人民币汇率一些现实问题。

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