基于支付意愿的城市公交服务市场细分理论与方法

Urbanization, motorization and social economy entered a stage of rapid development simultaneously in China, which has brought great challenges. For almost all cities, transit service suffers from a severe deficiency of service diversity, transit vehicles were operated in a completely traditional way, unable to compete with cars in accessibility, flexibility, travel speed, comfort and privacy, and hard to win expected market because owning a car is easy to afford for most families, nowadays. However, encouraging transit patronization is still in urgent need for the sustainable development of urbanization, as the national environment and energy strategy has asked. .To make transit service more attractive and reduce peoples’ profound reliance on personal automobile, this research will study passengers’ expectation of service attributes and their willingness to pay for those attributes while making decisions on travel mode, based on the previous research findings of travel fatigue, thermal comfort, travel-time-utilization and travelers’ subjective estimation of those attributes. Experiment would be conducted to investigate how much a passenger would like to pay for the improvement of each attribute, based on which we will propose a willingness-to-pay (WTP) model to quantitatively measure the monetary value of each attribute. .A variety of operating scenarios will be designed such as providing service with seat reservation, attempting to catch the acceptable fare level and potential market share of each sort of transit services from basic level to super-high level. Followed by the findings of WTP model and the evolution analysis of travel demand characteristics in Beijing, transit service market segmentation (TSMS) method will be studied, founded on which urban transit LOS architecture of Beijing will be discussed. .Finally, Beijing Rapid Commuting Public Transportation System will be studied based on the WTP model and TSMS method, a conceptual scheme, including network, operation, fare scheme and transfer-integration will be discussed.

我国城市城镇化、机动化以及社会经济发展水平同时步入快速发展阶段，传统的公共交通服务产品在服务层次上过于单一，难以满足新形势下百姓对于出行服务品质的多样化诉求，不利于公交优先发展战略的有效落实。鉴于此，本研究拟以人机工学相关研究成果为基础，从出行者的感受、对出行服务品质的期望，及其对交通服务的支付意愿角度出发，研究公共交通服务特性以及其它机动化方式服务特性与需求的适配程度和相互作用机理，开展出行选择行为实验和服务期望实验，提出能够反映出公交服务产品特性缺陷，以及产品结构缺陷的支付意愿模型。基于北京交通运行大数据开展大城市出行需求特征及演变规律研究，并以此为基础预判未来的需求层次结构，基于支付意愿的研究成果建立公交服务市场细分模型，并就市场细分背景下的多样化运行可行性开展探讨。最后，结合现实需求，以市场细分为基础，提出北京市公共交通快速通勤系统建设的思路和概念方案。

项目的背景：我国城镇化、机动化以及社会经济同时步入快速发展阶段，传统公交服务产品在层次上过于单一，难以满足新形势下百姓对出行服务品质的多样化诉求。本世纪以来，我国城市在公交基础设施规模扩充、运力增配、路权优先、服务改善、票价惠民等方面开展了一系列工作，但积极投入并未能换来预期的产出，2010-2013年成为了我国城市地面公交客运量和出行分担率双双下滑的重要拐点，亟待探索相关理论研究与实践方法，推动公交服务产品层次的多样化。.主要研究内容和重要成果：本项目回顾了我国公共交通发展的历程，进一步深化分析总结了全国公交发展面临的挑战，检讨与借鉴国内外已有公交评价方法，在充分考虑支付意愿的基础上，提出了基于交通服务市场细分的公交评价方法。.主要结论：1、结合社会经济发展，全面研判出行支付意愿的发展趋势，从服务品质、舒适度等角度出发揭示供需错配是建立公交市场细分的前提；2、建立市场细分的城市公交服务谱系，需要发展指标体系的引导，指标须能够反映城市与交通发展各要素之间的协调关系；3、均等和高效是公交服务市场细分体系构建的核心价值观，多样化公共交通服务产品的建立须兼顾公平和效率，特别要体现公平竞争、优质优价、企业运营效率等；4、“以城市群为主体形态”的发展背景下，公交服务市场细分不仅应着眼于更大的区域空间范围，且应将传统的城市公共汽（电）车与区域轨道交通、城市快线、地铁、长途巴士、需求响应式公交等多种客运方式进行统筹考虑。.科学意义：本研究的成果可为指导城市、都市圈、城市群客运交通服务产品谱系的设计奠定基础。

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