承接产业转移条件下滇中城市群发展机理与调控机制研究

The economic development of China has stepped from the “industrial age” into the “urbanization age”, and the City Group has become the center and the engine of the regional growth. Meanwhile, the trend of a consisting enlargement of the economic development disparity between the east and west region of China has been restraining, and the industry started to transfer to the west region. During this process, the DianZhong City Group which possesses better industrial foundation and policy environment is naturally becoming the core region of carrying on industry transfer in the southwest border area, and also is becoming the growth center that radiating its adjacent area, as well as the south Asia and the Southeast Asia. In this project, under the background of carrying on industry transfer, we plan to take the border city group as the growth pole of the border area, and merge the new economic geography theory (NEG) and the growth pole theory to construct an integrated model as “region-city group-radiating ring”. On this basis, with the economic geography data of the DianZhong City Group, we will study the development mechanism and the regulation mechanism of border city group under the condition of carrying on industry transfer by using a series of analysis methods including spatial econometrics model and spatial computable general equilibrium model. And we will provide policy suggestions of cultivate the Dianzhong City Group into the growth pole and the radiating center of the southwest border area.

中国经济发展已从“工业化时代”进入“城市化时代”，城市群已经成为区域增长的中心和引擎。与此同时，中国经济发展东西差距不断扩大的趋势正在收敛，产业向西转移的进程逐渐启动。在此过程中，具备较好产业基础和制度环境的滇中城市群，自然成为西南边疆地区承接产业转移的核心空间载体，也必将成为辐射周边地区乃至辐射南亚东南亚的增长中心。本项目拟将边疆城市群作为边疆地区增长极，嵌入到承接产业转移的背景中去，将新经济地理理论和增长极理论进行融合，构建一个“区域——城市群——辐射环”整合模型。在此基础上，利用滇中城市群经济地理数据，运用空间计量模型、空间可计算一般均衡模型（SCGE）等分析方法，对承接产业转移条件下边疆城市群的发展机理与调控机制进行研究，为把滇中城市群培育为西南边疆区域增长极和辐射中心提供针对性的政策建议。

中国城市化进程进入深入发展的阶段，城市群已经成为区域增长的中心和引擎。与此同时，中国经济发展东西差距不断扩大的趋势正在收敛，产业向西转移的进程逐渐启动。本项目即将滇中城市群作为西南边疆增长极，嵌入到承接产业转移的背景中，深入探讨其发展机理与调控机制，力图为区域城市发展提供更有针对性的对策建议。研究期间，项目组按原定研究计划开展研究，各项预定研究任务已按期完成，实现了预定研究目标。形成了较为扎实的项目成果：项目负责人及项目组成员受本项目资助，正式发表高水平SSCI论文2篇，正式发表CSSCI论文1篇，形成已签订出版协议完整书稿1部。形成了一系列工作论文和研究报告。项目负责人指导完成4篇硕士学位论文。主要研究内容和结果包括：首先，针对滇中城市群的结构功能特点构建了城市群辐射环整合NEG理论模型，针对滇中及云南区域数据分析的实际需要改进拓展了现有计量分析方法。第二，在梳理刻画云南城市体系结构的基础上，测度分析了昆明对周边区域、滇中对边境城镇链等各层级辐射的机制与现状，考察了滇中城市群在云南承接产业转移中的地位和作用。第三，针对滇中城市群自身发展、滇中城市群节点作用、滇中城市群辐射效能、云南城市体系协同发展等议题开展了政策评估与对策研究。最后，运用夜间灯光遥感数据考察了西南边境虚空化、毗邻国区域经济重心反常迁移等现象，启动城市创新视野下的神经经济学探索性研究。

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