农民工子女教育与健康研究：基于客观人力资本评价数据的分析

Significant rural-to-urban migration in China over the past three decades is likely to affect the human capital development of future generations via the education and health outcomes of migrant children. Available estimates suggest that the disruption of family migration mainly due to institutional restrictions tend to impose adverse effects on both the left-behind children and the children who traveled with their parents. . There is a large body of existing literature on determinants of children’s education and health in developing countries, which clearly demonstrates the importance of parental care. Yet, little has been known about the overall health and educational impact of parents’ migration on both left-behind children and children who move to cities with consistent survey instruments and sampling frame. . This proposed project intends to investigate the impact of migration on migration on migrant children’s education and health outcomes in China using a more systematic approach. In particular, we plan to use the most recent, comprehensive, and representative large panel sample survey data from the Rural-Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) project. . The survey uses consistent survey instruments, and covers all groups relevant for the study on migration, which includes rural households with members who have migrated, rural households without migrants, migrant households in cities, and permanent-resident urban households. Data from this survey allow us to compare children of migrants with different control groups using the consistently measured outcome as well as independent variables. . Specific research questions to be examined including (1) how does the migration of parents affect the education and health outcomes of children who remain behind in source villages relative to children whose parents do not migrate? (2) Does moving to cities improve rural children’s education and health outcomes relative to rural children who do not move to cities? (3) How does the lack of access to better quality schools in cities affect the education outcomes of children of migrants who moved to cities with their migrant parents? How do migrant children in cities fair compare to city children?. The project has significant policy implications. The performance of the children of migrants will have significant impact on China’s social stability and on its future stability. Effectively managing these potential instability factors is thus a top priority of the Chinese government. As China’s growth and stability have direct effect on Australia’s economic growth, assisting China to gain a better understanding and providing sensible policy recommendations are consistent with other developing countries’ interest...

随着我国城镇化的不断深入，目前已有2亿多农民工在城镇就业，其15岁以下子女规模已达到 8000万超过全国同龄孩子总数的三分之一。规模庞大的农民工子女的人力资本积累对我国经济社会的持续发展产生着深远的影响并已成为社会普遍关注的问题。本课题采用2008-2013年“中国农民工调查”的大样本追踪数据以及2013年补充进行的教育、心理客观测评数据，对我国学龄孩子的人力资本状况进行总体评估，并定量地分析父母外出打工对农民工子女人力资本现状产生的因果影响。为了更好地评价人力资本状况，本课题将采用国际标准的数学能力和认知能力测评来客观地评价农民工随迁子女、留守子女、农村非留守子女以及城市子女的人力资本现状。此外，本研究将采用先进的计量手段识别农民工外出决定对其子女人力资本积累的因果影响。

人力资本的构成会对经济发展模式和制度选择产生深远的影响。我国的产业升级政策对劳动力人力资本的构成提出了更高的要求。但是目前我国人力资本发展不平衡，城乡差距显著。要提高我教育整体的人力资本水平主要是提高农村孩子的教育获得。提高农村孩子的教育水平必须要联系到我国的重要国情---劳动力的城乡迁移。目前我国有1.63亿农民工在城市务工，占城镇劳动力总量的1/3。作为农民工子女的孩子，他们主要有两种教育选择，一是跟随父母到城里上学（随迁儿童），还有就是留在农村老家（成为留守儿童）。本研究关注父母外出务工对子女教育以及健康的短期及长期影响。从而系统地评估在城乡移民背景下对下一代人力资本积累的影响。 . 基于中国农民工调查（RUMiC) 的样本框，本项目分农村、城市和农民工住户在2011-2012年共收集了1200个符合条件孩子的认知和非认知测试信息。同时为了研究留守的长期影响，本项目与2013－2015年收集了1000个监狱农民工背景服刑人员的样本。利用调查数据以及全国代表性的2009-2010“中国家庭追踪调查”（CFPS），本研究系统描述了城市、农民工和农村住户三类孩子的认知及非认知能力的差异，并分析了产生原因；在此基础上特别关注留守儿童背景对认知及非认知能力的影响；最后分析留守儿童背景的长期影响，特别是由于留守儿童认知和非认知能力缺乏，对其成年后犯罪的影响。本研究发现我国城乡教育差距显著，农村孩子的教育水平、教育机会远低于城市孩子，形成巨大的城乡教育不平等；在农村孩子中，留守儿童又处于更为劣势的状态，其认知和非认知能力均处于较低水平，特别是非认知能力（性格特质）相对农村非留守儿童和城市户籍儿童处于明显劣势，这使得其成年后犯罪的可能性显著增加。

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