基于高维面板数据的环境管理政策评估方法及其应用

Aiming at the contradiction between environmental management policy and economic and social development，this project explore to build dynamic environmental quality assessment index system; Referencing evaluation theory based on cross-section data and time series data , we research environmental quality and environmental management policy evaluation theory 、method and application under the condition of high dimensional panel data, so as to achieve dynamic prediction of environmental quality; Construct a Bayesian network model, introduce environmental management policies as qualitative factors affecting the quality of the environment, establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, exploration measuring relationship between environmental management policies and environmental quality under the condition of high dimensional panel data; Innovation to improve environmental management, and promote the steady rise of environmental quality..Compared with the previous research, this project focus on the effectiveness of the evaluation index system, the applicability and conciseness of the evaluation method,and the practicability of measurement theory, assess the effectiveness of environmental management policy, in order to establish adaptive, elasticity, robustness, and sustainable environmental management policy providing the support of number.

针对我国环境管理政策与经济社会发展不相适应的矛盾，探索构建动态的环境质量评价指标体系；借鉴截面数据与时间序列数据的评价理论，研究高维面板数据条件下，环境质量与环境管理政策的评估理论、方法及其应用，实现环境质量精准动态预报；构建贝叶斯网络模型，引入环境管理政策作为影响环境质量的定性因素，建立可计算一般均衡模型（CGE），探索高维面板数据条件下环境管理政策与环境质量之间的计量关系；创新完善环境管理政策，推进环境质量稳步提升。.与以往研究相比，本项目注重评价指标体系的有效性、评价方法的适用性和简明性、计量理论与方法的实用性，评估环境管理政策的效用，为建立具有适应性、弹性、稳健性和可持续性的环境管理政策提供数量支撑。

针对我国环境管理政策与经济社会发展不相适应的矛盾，遵循全面性、代表性、层次分明原则，运用驱动力-压力-状态-影响力-响应模型构建环境质量、经济和社会系统三级评价指标体系；针对高维面板数据独有的时间维度特征，运用改进的CRITIC法和拉开档次法得到指标权重进行静态评价；通过“时间度”得到主观时间权重，基于矩阵距离的TOPSIS法确定客观时间权重，基于集成理论确定最终的时间权重；根据三维信息集结的灰色关联度模型分别对环境质量、经济发展做静态和动态评价。最后，构造最优化指数、统一度指数和脱钩指数探讨我国省域环境质量、经济和社会系统的综合发展水平、协调性和脱钩状况。项目的主要研究内容有构建既具有普适性又有差异性环境及经济质量评价指标体系、多维面板数据无量纲化及赋权法方法研究、探讨影响环境质量的内在影响因素与外在客观条件、环境质量与经济发展的协调性、脱钩性研究等。通过准确有效的衡量环境质量与经济发展的关系，针对不同区域提出针对性的发展建议和策略，助力经济社会和生态文明双赢发展。

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