以“一带一路”创新牵引中国区域产业转移、转型并高质量发展的机理、路径与政策研究

The high-qualified development of balanced and abundant characterized industry is the core and foundation of the achievement towards the Two Centenary Goals in the new era. The “win-win” effect in terms of elements, market and the division of labor brought by the Belt and Road provides opportunities for the high-qualified development in the transfer and transformation of China's regional industry. Based on the related theories, researches and the continuous survey of China's industrial development after years of research made by the applicant and his leading team, this study will analyze the dilemma of high-qualified development of China's industry. By introducing and using DEA and the spiral distance function, this project will correct the climbing path of the traditional value chain. Also, based on the correction of industrial gravity model and value chain climbing model and the chaos control theory, this study will use machine to learn the integrated model of random forest training in order to validate and optimize high-qualified development path. With the combination of field research and theoretical exploration, this study will scientifically design a system which monitors, evaluates and couples back suggestions about the high-qualified development of the industries and put forwards policy factors and measures of China's industrial transfer, transformation and high-quality development led by the Belt and Road. The results of the study will improve and perfect the related theories of Industrial transfer, transformation and upgrading, and at the same time, providing theoretical basis and advice for the government decision-making in the transformation of China's industrial system innovation.

以平衡和充分为特征的产业“高质量”发展是新时代实现“两个百年”目标的核心基础。“一带一路”建设在要素、市场、分工方面的“共赢”效应为中国区域产业通过转移、转型实现高质量发展提供机遇。本项目拟在中外相关理论研究和申请者团队多年来对中国产业发展持续考察的基础上，剖析中国产业高质量发展的梗阻因素；引入DEA等方法，利用螺旋距离函数修正传统价值链攀升路径，探索“一带一路”下我国产业破除梗阻、实现高质量发展的内在机理；基于混沌控制理论修正产业引力模型和价值链攀升模型，利用机器学习的随机森林训练集成模型，验证与优化高质量发展路径；通过实地调研并结合理论探索，科学设计产业“高质量”发展监测、评价和反馈系统，提炼“一带一路”牵引中国产业转移、转型并高质量发展的政策因素。项目研究成果将既进一步丰富和完善产业转移、转型与升级的相关理论，也能为我国产业体系创新转型中的政府治理提供理论依据和政策建议。

在“一带一路”倡议的背景下，如何通过产业的转移、转型促进产业和经济高质量发展，实现“坚持高水平对外开放，加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”的目标，是中国式现代化进程中学界、政府和企业均关注的重要问题。本课题以“‘一带一路’背景下的创新牵引与驱动”为手段，以产业转移和集群化组织为内容，试图回答“能否以及如何落实借助共赢式开放发展政策实现对中国区域产业高质量发展的创新牵引”这一关键科学问题。本课题首先通过理论梳理和实证分析剖析了“一带一路”背景下创新牵引产业发展的机制和作用原理，即通过资源配置、产业链和供应链重构、产业组织和结构优化等方式，促进中国产业的创新与高质量发展。其次，通过对全国第一制造强市苏州市产业创新实践的实地调研和产业集群组织的理论探索，首创了“产业创新集群”概念，解释了其属性与特征，揭示了其通过产业创新能力的积累和原创性成果的应用，引领实体产业跨越式、高质量发展和催生未来产业的作用。然后，通过对苏州产业与创新高质量发展情况的系统评价与经验总结，并与“一带一路”和“双循环”相结合，提出了实施“创新牵引贸易与产业相互促进、转移与转型联动发展”的可行路径。综之，课题组构建了“一带一路”创新牵引产业发展的机理模型，借助于“产业创新集群”概念，在充分考虑区域发展差异与动态演进的基础上，构建了产业创新与高质量发展的可行路径，为构建现代化产业体系，实现“中国式现代化”提供了理论基础与实践案例。苏州的实践证明，课题组的原创性概念“产业创新集群”及相应的研究成果不仅具有明显的理论价值和学术影响力，同时也能对政府的政策制定与企业的战略决策发挥实践指导作用。

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