基于多源信息融合的小流域山洪灾害风险可变模糊定量评价研究

Mountain flood disaster often occurs in mountain small catchment gully. It has strong energy, large devastating and poor predictability characteristics. The mountain flood risk assessment involvers a number of factors. Various factors intertwine each other forming a high-dimensional complex system architecture. So it is urgent to explore a simple, practical and reliable, and can effectively deal with the risk analysis of small catchment torrents fuzziness, uncertainty of models and methods. In response to this situation, this project will choose the disaster factors identification and the evaluation of their importance in the process of mountain torrent nurturing and occurring, as well as the quantitative description and mathematical modeling of uncertainty containing in the mountain disaster system, as the key scientific issues. The typical small disaster-prone catchments in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River will be selected as the study area. On the basis of identification of major disaster factors in a systematic way, the association rules are adopted to reveal the correlation between torrents and disaster factor, and quantitatively evaluate of its importance. By constructing a standard interval matrix, status indicators attract matrix, and the relative membership function, the variable fuzzy evaluation model of small catchment flood disasters risk is studied, to give a quantitative description of the risk profile of flood disasters. The expected result of this project will help to find the law contained in the nurturing and development of flash flood and increase the protection capacity of small catchment. So, it has important theoretical and practical values.

山洪灾害常发生在山区小流域溪沟，突发性强、破坏性大、预见性差。山洪风险评估中涉及因素众多，各个因素之间交织影响，形成高维复杂的系统体系，亟需探索一种简单易行、实用可靠又能有效处理小流域山洪风险分析中的模糊性、不确定性的模型和方法。针对这一现状，本项目将小流域山洪灾害孕育和发生过程中的致灾因子确定与重要性评价，以及山洪灾害系统蕴含的模糊清晰性定量描述与数学建模，作为关键科学问题，以长江中上游典型小流域山洪多发区为试验区，在系统辨识诱发山洪灾害主要致灾因子的基础上，采用关联规则，揭示致灾因素与诱发山洪之间的相关性，并定量评价其重要性，通过构建指标标准区间矩阵和状态吸引矩阵，建立相对隶属度函数，研究小流域山洪灾害风险可变模糊评价模型，定量描述山洪灾害风险状况。本项目对揭示小流域山洪灾害孕育、发生发展的客观规律，提高小流域保障能力，具有重要的理论意义与实际应用价值。

山洪灾害常发生在山区小流域溪沟，突发性强、破坏性大、预见性差。山洪灾害风险评价中涉及因素较多，各因素相互交织影响，形成复杂的系统体系。体系中很多影响作用具有模糊性、随机性等各种不确定性。本项目围绕“山洪灾害系统蕴含的不确定性定量描述与数学建模”这一科学问题，在深入分析山洪灾害风险系统的基础上，采用相关性分析方法，从山洪灾害形成的自然属性和社会属性两个方面对山洪灾害影响因素进行剖析。在此基础上，针对山洪灾害形成、发展、致灾过程不确定性对山洪灾害风险的影响，选定山洪灾害风险评价指标，构建评价指标体系。引入了可变模糊集理论，通过构建指标标准区间矩阵、状态吸引矩阵及相对隶属度函数，建立了山洪灾害风险评价的可变模糊综合评价模型与方法，结合应用实例，有效地描述了风险评价中的模糊性和随机性，得到了较好的评价结果，为流域山洪灾害风险评价提供了一种新思路。

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