环渤海滨海湿地应对海岸挤压效应的保护修复一体化生态调控途径

Coastal wetlands provide considerable amount of the Earth’s global biodiversity and substantial ecosystem services, creating a strong imperative for their protection and restoration. Previous research indicated that the coastal wetlands can adapt themselves for accelerating sea level rise (SLR) through landward migration and upland recolonization, but the hardening coastal defense and associated intensive coastal land reclamation may hinder even interrupt the process of landward migration. This so-called "coastal squeeze" effects led by.SLR and coastal reclamation may result in the fragmentation, erosion even crumbling of coastal wetland ecosystem. The coastal wetlands around Bohai Sea are characterized with global biodiversity hotspot (e.g., migratory shorebirds) and enormous ecosystem services such as carbon storage, water purification and coastal defense, where the coastal squeeze is also prominent and probably intensified by those coastal reclamation activities such as large-scale oil & gas development, rapid harbor and industrial infrastructure under increased SLR. The effects of coastal squeeze has produced prominent erosion of coastal habitats and coastal defense, bringing about greater ecological and socioeconomic risk to the coastal region around Bohai Sea. Therefore, how to enhance multiply coastal ecosystem services and provide ecologically resilient spaces for the coastal wetlands to facilitate the ecological adaptation to the coastal squeeze is confronted as a key.issue for the sustainable coastal management around Bohai Sea. Aiming at mitigation of coastal squeeze through optimizing integrated spatial pattern of conservation and rehabilitation of coastal wetlands around Bohai Sea, this project will firstly spatially quantify the effects of coastal squeeze by developing GIS-based Coastal Squeeze Index (CSI) and discern the hotspots and vulnerable sites across the coastal region, then SLAMM (Sea Level Affecting Marsh Model) will be employed to model the landward migration process and recolonization.pattern under ICPP RCP 4.5-defined scenarios of SRL. The potential inland habitats for coastal wetlands migration in respond to the SLR scenarios can identifed by combining the modelling results of SLAMM and CSI. To explore the spatial priority for integrated conservation and rehabilitation activities, the targeted coastal habitat types for rehabilitation shall be identified based on remote sensing retrieval technique and feasibility analysis, and the major multiple ecosystem service (habitat quality, carbon storage, water purification) hotspots based on the rehabilitation will be modelled and recognized by InVEST. The cost-effective spatial pattern for overall optimization of those multiple ecosystem services could be generated based on Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) and its planning tool-Marxan with.Zone, where the spatial priorities for coastal wetland conservation and rehabilitation are best integrated. Finally, the coastal ecological security pattern can be established by combining the prioritized habitats for ecosystem service enhancement and SRL-adaptation, and this spatial strategy can be used to regulate ongoing and planned coastal reclamation programme and guild adaptive coastal management around Bohai Sea.

滨海湿地适应海平面上升的陆向迁移过程由于高强度人类土地开发活动被干扰甚至中断，这种自然-人文双向“海岸挤压效应”，导致滨海湿地生态系统的退化甚至崩溃。环渤海滨海湿地具有全球意义的生物多样性保护价值和生态系统服务功能，然而海平面上升加剧及大规模油气开发、港口建设等导致的海岸挤压效应也日愈加剧，潜藏的区域生态风险日益累积。如何通过优化滨海湿地保育恢复整体格局，提升其生态系统服务功能的同时，兼顾其应对海岸挤压效应的弹性生态空间，已成为环渤海滨海湿地可持续管理的关键论题。本项目通过对海岸挤压效应的表征和模拟，依托系统保护规划的理论方法，权衡生态系统服务功能间的协同效应和优化成本，确定滨海湿地合理的保育修复水平和优先格局，并与海岸挤压生态脆弱区和滨海湿地陆向迁移格局进行空间匹配，最终构建生态功能高效、完整的环渤海滨海湿地生态安全格局体系，为环渤海滨海湿地可持续发展的国土空间规划提供决策支持。

环渤海滨海湿地具有全球意义的生物多样性保护价值和生态系统服务功能，然而海平面上升及围填海活动导致的海岸挤压效应也日愈加剧。项目研究通过景观演变轨迹分析及基于SLAMM模型的海岸挤压效应模拟，评估围填海多驱动过程及海平面上升情景下的生态系统服务效应，依托系统保护规划理论方法，确定了滨海湿地保护修复一体化优先格局，并结合海岸挤压效应下的湿地迁移格局下的生态脆弱区，共同构建“三线整合”的滨海湿地生态安全格局，在此基础上提出了针对有优先格局的水文连通、生物连通等生态调控途径。项目研究结果表明，对于滨海湿地整体生态系统服务提升来说，将潜在可修复湿地的修复规划与管理纳入到当前湿地保护体系中，将区域生态短板与长板协同优化，将有利于区域滨海湿地整体生态功能的有效发挥；项目研究提出的 “三线整合”构筑滨海湿地生态安全格局经国土资源部批示，将在黄河三角洲保护修复规划中应用。用SLAMM度量海岸挤压效应，其模拟结果相较指数评估，具有直观性、精确性，并可以充分考虑未来SLR的影响。另外，增加了自选内容“滨海湿地生态与社会经济网络耦合分析”，设计的滨海湿地生态与社会经济网络模型具有普适性，整体网络调控对区域生态社会经济协调及高质量发展指示意义。

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