中小学生穿越无控制人行横道时人车冲突建模与仿真

Crossing safety for primary and secondary school students has become a common concern issue. This project takes traffic conflict between primary and secondary school students crossing uncontrolled crosswalk and vehicle as research object. Behavior strategies for primary and secondary school student and driver are obtained by rough set theory, then strategic behavior model (decision-making model) based on grey evolutionary game is established for student and driver, at the same time behavioral and movement characteristics in pedestrian vehicle conflict are analyzed, and tactical behavior models (motion models) are proposed for student and vehicle, which can describe interaction between student and vehicle in detail. Evaluation indexes of pedestrian vehicle conflict are proposed from the perspective of road space and time resources utilization. Semi-supervised clustering algorithm is applied to the classification of grading standards of pedestrian vehicle conflict, and group decision making method is used for determining the weights of evaluation indexes. Uncertainty evaluation method based on relevance vector machine and set analysis is proposed for evaluation of the level of conflict. Finally a multi-agent simulation platform is built to validate the proposed model. The outcomes of the project will enrich the theories of mixed traffic flow and provide decision support for the management of the student crossing safety and the setting of traffic safety facilities.

中小学生过街交通安全已成为社会普遍关注的问题。本项目以中小学生穿越无控制人行横道时与机动车的冲突为研究对象，采用粗糙集理论获取中小学生和驾驶员的行为策略集合，以此为基础建立基于灰色演化博弈的中小学生和驾驶员战略行为模型(决策模型)，同时分析人车冲突时行为特征和运动特性，建立中小学生和机动车战术行为模型(运动模型)，从而细致刻画中小学生和机动车相互作用演变过程；从道路时空资源利用角度建立人车冲突评价指标，应用半监督聚类算法划分人车冲突程度及评级指标分级标准，采用群体决策法确定评价指标权重，提出基于相关向量机和集对分析的不确定性评价方法，从而完善人车冲突程度评价方法体系；最终构建多智能体仿真分析平台，对提出的模型方法进行验证评价。项目成果将充实混合交通流相关理论方法，为中小学生过街安全管理和交通安全设施设置提供决策支持。

中小学生过街交通安全已成为社会普遍关注的问题。本项目以中小学生穿越无控制人行横道时与机动车的冲突为研究对象，将累积前景理论融入演化博弈框架，建立了中小学生和驾驶员战略行为模型(决策模型)，可以捕捉过街群体中不一致决策现象；同时分析人车冲突时行为特征和运动特性，建立中小学生和机动车战术行为模型(运动模型)，其中考虑车辆“3秒”跟车规则、行人右行偏好和混合交通流死锁等问题，从而细致刻画中小学生和机动车相互作用演变过程；将客观交通参数与驾驶员的主观感知相结合，考虑道路时空资源占用，提出基于驾驶员感知的人车冲突分级方法；调研中小学生过街认知、过街方式和违章心理情况，分析中小学生过街风险感知，比较不同车辆减速设施设置方案；最终构建多智能体仿真分析平台，对提出的模型方法进行验证评价，可以再现实际观测的交通现象。项目成果将充实混合交通流相关理论方法，为中小学生过街安全管理和交通安全设施设置提供决策支持。

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