市场、风险与农户技术采用行为——基于水稻、荔枝产业的对比研究

In the context of urbanization, industrialization, agricultural development in China by the shortage of input elements of the multiple constraints facing a critical period of transition from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture. Young labor force is constantly transfer to agriculture external low quality of the agricultural labor, non-agricultural land leads to the steady decline of agricultural land, the rising prices of production down the profit margins of agriculture; agricultural development depends on the input of the traditional elements of modern technology inputs seriously inadequate. Farmers the technical constraints for the elements of the breakthroughs in agricultural development, the transformation of traditional agriculture has a key role. Agricultural production is facing market risks and natural risks of this project is to further deepen the farmers behavior motive theory of induced technical change, analysis of the scarcity factor, market demand, the natural risk prevention mechanism of farmers technology uses the behavioral impact. Rice on behalf of the food crops, litchi on behalf of the cash crops of comparative studies, the product characteristics, market characteristics derive the critical technology needs of the industry, using the discrete model to verify the scarcity factor, market demand, natural risks, the main producing areas farmers use behavior the mechanism of the difference.Research findings for the direction of agricultural technology research and development, technology promotion focus, and farmers technology has important reference value.

在城镇化、工业化背景下，我国农业发展受到投入要素紧缺的多重约束，面临着由传统农业向现代农业转型的关键时期。青壮年劳动力不断转移到农业外部使得农业劳动力素质低下，土地非农化导致农业用地不断减少，生产资料价格的不断上涨压低了农业的利润空间；农业发展依赖于传统要素的投入，现代化技术要素投入严重不足。农户的技术采用对于突破农业发展的要素约束、改造传统农业具有关键作用。农业生产面临着市场风险和自然风险，本项目进一步深化农户行为动机、诱致性技术变迁理论，分析稀缺要素、市场需求、自然风险防范对农户技术采用行为影响的作用机理。以水稻代表粮食作物、荔枝代表经济作物进行对比研究，从产品特性、市场特性推导出产业的关键技术需求，采用离散模型，验证稀缺要素、市场需求、自然风险对主产区农户技术采用行为的作用机理的差异。研究结论对于农业技术研发方向、技术推广重点以及农户技术应用具有重要的参考价值。

农业生产面临着市场风险和自然风险，本项目以农户行为理论、诱导性技术创新理论为基础，借鉴国内外对农户技术采用的决策过程、农户技术采用行为的影响因素、技术经济效益评价等方面的相关研究成果，利用宏观统计数据和农户实地调研数据，运用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法，从理论和实证上探讨稀缺要素、市场需求、自然风险防范对农户技术采用行为的作用机理，并对比分析农户技术采用效果。研究特色在于：（1）补充和完善了诱致性技术创新理论。诱导性技术创新理论侧重于从要素市场和产品市场两个方面分析技术创新的诱导因素。然而，除了要素市场和产品市场影响，自然风险对农户荔枝生产技术采用行为具有不可避免的重要影响；（2）以农户为研究主体，以水稻和荔枝产业为例，分析农户技术采用行为的影响因素及差异。

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