非关税壁垒对我国农业贸易的影响--基于结构引力模型与企业异质性模型的研究

While tariff has been reduced significantly over the past decade, trade protectionism remains rampant. Particularly, many countries start to adopt more non-tariff measures (NTMs) than ever before. Among the NTMs affecting agricultural trade, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) regulations and technical barriers to trade (TBT) occupy a special place in terms of prevalence and economic significance. While China is the fifth largest agricultural exporter in the world, 90% of China's agricultural exporting firms are subject to SPS/TBT regulations imposed by importing countries, resulting in an average annual loss up to $ 9 billion. However, the impact of SPS/TBT measures on China’s agricultural trade is not well understood by the public. Specifically, five major issues are associated with current studies: (i) incomplete research data, (ii) insufficient theoretical innovation, (iii) imprecise quantitative methods, (iv) lack of attention to firm-level research, and (v) lack of specificity in policy suggestions. To address these key concerns, this project will: (i) comprehensively collect relevant information on SPS/TBT measures to improve China's existing SPS/TBT database; (ii) create a structural gravity model to quantify the effects of SPS/TBT measures on China's agricultural exports at the macro level; (iii) build an firm heterogeneity model to evaluate the impact of SPS/TBT measures on the export and business behavior of different types of agricultural firms; and (iv) adopt a discrete-time approach to estimate SPS/TBT measures’ impact on the export duration of enterprises. This study will explore the impact mechanism of SPS/TBT measures and quantify its economic effects both comprehensively and accurately. The research results will be combined with the status quo of China’s agricultural export to generate a series of helpful policy suggestions.

随着关税税率的逐渐降低，以检疫检验标准（SPS）和技术性贸易壁垒（TBT）为代表的隐蔽性更强、透明度更低、更不易监督和预测的非关税措施正逐渐被各国所大量采用。作为世界第五大农产品出口国，我国90%以上农产品出口企业遭受进口国SPS/TBT措施的限制，年均损失高达90亿美元。尽管SPS/TBT措施对农业贸易有着重要影响，但我国对相关领域研究的重视程度仍然较低。具体表现为：（1）研究数据不完善、（2）理论创新不足、（3）计量方法不严谨、（4）对企业层面研究缺乏关注、（5）政策建议过于宽泛，这五大方面问题。基于上述考量，本项目拟从完善数据基础、构建宏观理论体系、引入企业异质性研究、创新政策评估范式、改进分析量化方法这五个维度展开研究，并最终将研究结果与我国当前农业出口现状结合，提出一系列明确、具体的政策建议。

随着关税税率的降低，隐蔽性更强、透明度更低、更不易监督和预测的非关税措施（NTM）正逐渐被各国所大量采用。作为世界第五大农产品出口国，我国90%以上农产品出口企业遭受进口国NTM的限制，年均损失高达90亿美元。本项目通过揭示各类NTM对我国农业贸易以及出口企业经营行为的影响及其机制，探求了中国参与国际农业贸易谈判和出口企业应对NTM、提升国际竞争力的有效路径。我们首先构建了出口限制、进口拒绝和双边关系三个NTM相关数据库，并结合贸易数据分析了世界主要国家NTM的动因及演变过程，以及中国农产品出口遭遇的挑战。其次，我们从贸易成本角度出发，剖析了贸易成本及其组成部分在农业贸易中的重要地位，重点强调了由NTM造成的合规成本对农业贸易的影响，并通过引入福利经济学理论优化完善了NTM对农产品贸易和福利影响的理论体系。例如，Grant et al.（2021）探究了他国针对美国逆全球化政策采取的包括NTM在内的报复性措施对农产品贸易的影响，结果表明，报复性措施导致美国农产品出口年均损失高达135-187亿美元。Sun et al.（2021）也分析了由食品安全监管法规所驱动的NTM对农产品贸易的影响，发现日益严格的食品安全法规抑制了农产品出口企业的发展。最后，我们全面剖析了与NTM相关的WTO规则存在的缺陷，针对性地提出促进全球农业贸易治理体系改革的中国方案。

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