基于遥感与手机大数据信息融合的地震人员伤亡评估模型与方法

The rapid and accurate acquisition of the number of earthquake casualties and their spatial distribution is an important basis for carrying out daily emergency preparedness and emergency rescue operations after the earthquake. China has frequent earthquakes, and it is particularly important and urgent to carry out studies on assessment models and methods for earthquake casualties. Under the background of big data, this project introduces two data sources of remote sensing and mobile phones, using remote sensing for the fine recording ability of seismic scene and carrier and the dynamic monitoring advantage of mobile data in the regularity of personnel activity and time-space distribution. Based on the idea of big data research, and through the mining of the internal laws of two types of big data and information fusion, this project carries out mobile data spatio-temporal modeling and personnel activity rule analysis, pure base station recognition and urban function area decomposition, personnel room rate, population earthquake disaster exposure calculation models and methods. Finally, it established a space-time assessment model that can reflect the spatial distribution of casualties at different times and solved the outstanding problems such as insufficient data, static model, and single result in the assessment of casualties in traditional earthquakes, and significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of earthquake casualty assessment. This provides decision support for the risk assessment and management of daily earthquake disaster and emergency rescue for the first time after the earthquake.

快速准确获取地震伤亡人员的数量及其空间分布是合理开展日常应急准备和震后应急救援行动的重要依据。我国地震频繁，开展地震伤亡人员评估模型与方法研究尤为重要和迫切。本项目在大数据背景下，引入遥感和手机两大数据，利用遥感对地震场景和承载体的精细记录能力和手机数据在人员时空分布动态监测优势，通过对两类大数据内在规律的挖掘和信息融合，开展手机数据时空建模与人员活动规律分析、纯基站识别与城市功能区分解、人员在室率与人口地震灾害暴露量的计算模型与方法研究，并最终建立了考虑地震发生时间、能够反映人员伤亡空间分布的时空评估模型，解决传统地震人员伤亡评估中数据不足、模型静态、结果单一等突出问题，显著提高对地震人员伤亡评估的精度和可靠性，为日常地震灾害风险评估和管理、震后第一时间的应急救援提供决策支持。

本项目引入手机和遥感大数据技术进行地震人员伤亡评估，并选择张家口市区进行应用，研究成果主要包括基于手机大数据的人群活动规律分析，融合遥感和手机大数据的人员灾害暴露量计算，以及地震灾害人员伤亡空间评估模型及应用。在分析了手机定位大数据的人群规律的时间序列时，发现手机定位量的分布规律大体上是以天为周期的，具有一定稳定性。定位量的变化与人类活动的类型有着高度相关性，呈现出周期性的波动。睡眠时、工作时定位请求较少，休息时、出行时定位请求较多。构建了融合遥感和手机大数据的地震灾害人口在室模型，运用建筑物容积的方法计算了居住类型建筑物可容纳的人数，对张家口市区的建筑物人口时空变化和分布以小时为间隔进行模拟，得到随时间推移的建筑物内人口的时间序列图，从时间上看，早上居住建筑物的人群活动量减少，办公类建筑物的人群活动量会增加，晚上居住建筑物的人群活动量增加，其他类型建筑物的人群活动量减少，构建了地震灾害人员伤亡时空评估模型，在相同地震烈度（Ⅷ-Ⅹ）下，发生在夜晚21点到次日7点和18点的地震造成得伤亡的人数最多，发生在其他时段的死伤人数介于二者之间。发生在13点时的地震，造成的死伤人数最少。该研究成果可以为地震灾害预防与地震爆发第一时间的应急救援提供决策支持数据。

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