区域用水行为对水资源管理政策的响应机制与动态调控

The problems how to simulate and analyze the response mechanism and movement process of regional water-use behavior for water resource management policy and then to coordinate the relationship between the water resource management policy, regional water use behavior and the national economic development is the current key scientific problems in the economic and social development in a region which need to be answered urgently. Firstly the project identify the key factors driving the change of regional water demand, and then build regional water use behavior simulation model based on multi-agent method by considering the water user adaptability to environment, and the negotiation, competition and hierarchical structure among the water users, aiming at analyzing the policy environment, change of water consumption efficiency and water pollutant discharge and theirs response relationship. Secondly, from the preparation of the regional social accounting matrix form considering the level of regional water use and sewage, we construct the adaptive regulation model of industrial structure based on the theory of computable general equilibrium, in order to analysis of the mechanism between water structure and national economy structure in a region. Thirdly, we set up the theoretical framework and method system and application pattern of water resources management policy simulation and regulation by the integration of diagnosis, scene design, policy simulation and industrial structure adaptive regulation. This research can promote cross fusion and integrated development of water conservancy science and management science, economics, intelligence science, system science on one hand, help the implementation and evaluation of the regional most strict water resources management system, and also promote the scientific arrangement of water use structure and industrial structure.

模拟解析区域用水行为对水资源管理政策的响应机制，协同调控水资源管理政策、用水行为与国民经济发展的关系，是在当前中国全面实施最严格水资源管理制度背景下区域经济社会发展中普遍面临与亟待解答的关键科学问题。项目从识别驱动区域用水需求变化的关键因子入手，考虑用水主体的环境适应性及主体间协商、竞争和复杂层次结构特征，构建基于多智能体的区域用水行为模拟模型，解析政策环境与用水、排污及其变化的响应关系；从编制考虑用水和排污水平的社会核算矩阵表入手，构建基于可计算一般均衡理论的产业结构适应性调控模型，探析用水结构与国民经济结构的作用机理；在此基础上构建集因子诊断、情景设计、用水行为模拟与产业结构适应性调控于一体的水资源管理政策模拟与调控的理论、方法与应用模式。本研究将促进水利科学与管理学、经济学与系统科学的交叉融合与集成发展，推动区域最严格水资源管理制度的落实、考核及该制度下用水结构、产业结构的科学安排。

模拟解析区域用水行为对水资源管理政策的响应机制与运动过程，动态调控水资源管理政策、区域用水行为与国民经济发展的协调关系，是当前区域经济社会发展中所普遍面临与亟待解答的关键科学问题。项目从识别驱动区域用水需求变化的关键因子入手，考虑用水主体的环境适应性及主体间协商、竞争和层次结构特征，构建区域用水行为模拟模型，解析政策环境与用水总量、用水效率、排污总量及其变化的响应关系；从编制考虑用水和排污水平的区域社会核算矩阵表入手，构建产业结构适应性调控模型，探析用水结构与国民经济结构的作用机理；进而构建了集因子诊断、情景设计、政策模拟与产业结构适应性调控于一体的水资源管理政策模拟与调控的理论、方法与应用模式。取得具体成果如下：.（1）建立了区域用水量多层次驱动因子识别模型，解释了用水总量等三条红线管控指标的动态变化，揭示了其驱动机制。.（2）基于非充分灌溉理论，建立了农业种植结构与灌溉制度优化模型，提出了山东省和南四湖流域不同水平年农业种植结构优化方案。.（3）构建了考虑大规模调水扰动的多水源配置与工程调控两阶段模型，提出了南水北调东线工程运行条件下南四湖梯级湖泊和大型水库优化运行方案。.（4）研发了区域用水结构和排污结构产生器以及智能控制器，以水资源管理政策模拟调控模型为基础，采用B/S架构研发了国内首个最严格水资源管理制度数字模拟实验平台，在我国北方山东省和南方北江流域得到成功应用。.项目先后邀请国外5位国际水利知名专家来院讲学培训，2016-2017年连续两年组织召开中美“变化水文过程与水资源调控”学术研讨会、中德“水资源调控与政策分析”学术研讨会，项目团队一行三人赴德国集中进修3个月。项目负责人参加学术会议10次，作学术报告9次。以第一作者或通讯作者发表学术论文18篇，其中SCI期刊论文7篇、EI期刊论文5篇；出版学术专著1部；申请国家专利9项，已授权2项，获得软件著作权2项；获得省部级科技进步奖2项，其中一等奖1项，项目负责人排名第一，二等奖1项，项目负责人排名第二。

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