基于收益管理的季节性商品库存-价格联合决策研究

In order to cope with the perishability of seasonal products in retailing, based on revenue management, this project proposes dynamic programming models with capacity constraint to determine the optimal introducing time of new seasonal product and the optimal re-order time of the incumbent product under the consideration of two types of ordering strategies such as only once and having second order opportunity, respectively. By resorting to optimization approach, it solves the problems optimally. After that, the research develops the optimal order quantity of both products. In this project, much more attention is paid on the analysis of the relationship between the introducing time of the new season product and the re-order time of the incumbent product together with the impact on the optimal solutions due to the discrepancy of these two time point. Meanwhile, as the seasonal product depreciates with the time collapses, this research program investigates Markov decision process to establish discrete time models to jointly determining the inventory and pricing policies under finite decision horizon after taking the consideration of inventory levels of new seasonal product and incumbent product, the remaining sales intervals and the demands of both types of product. Finally, this project conducts numerical studies on the problem. The result reveals valuable information and shed insightful manageable instructions to retailers on seasonal product sales.

针对季节性商品的易逝性，本课题拟从收益管理理论出发，研究在一次订货和允许季中补货两种模式下，考虑仓储容量的限制，运用动态规划方法，分别建立新季节商品引入时机和当季商品补货时机决策模型，通过优化求解，找到两种订货模式下新季节商品的最佳引入时机和当季商品的最佳补货时机。在此基础上，分析两种商品的最佳订购数量。重点针对季中补货模式下，分析同一销售季节内，当季商品和新季节商品不同订货时机之间的关系及其差异对最优订货时机和订货量的影响。同时，针对季节性商品随时间易贬值的特点，运用马尔科夫决策方法，考虑当季商品和新季节商品的库存量、剩余销售期和市场需求等因素，构建有限期决策离散时间库存-价格模型，并运用最优化理论，提出当季商品和新季节商品的阶段定价策略。最后，通过模拟技术分析理论模型，为季节性商品销售企业的库存和定价决策提供信息参考和理论方法支持。

研究在一次订货和季中补货两种情况下，季节性商品最佳引入和补货时机，确定最佳订货量。并考虑在商品销售期内，根据库存量、剩余销售期和市场需求，制定价格策略。在一次订货模型中，零售商应选择在当前销售季节结束时引入新季节商品，报童模型确定的订货量为最佳订货量，对应的价格策略就是其最佳定价策略。并通过数值分析，研究了零售商利润对各要素的敏感性。当允许季中补货时，由于模型较复杂，通过数值模拟可知，新季节商品在当前季节商品还剩一个销售期内补货较合理，补货量就是最大可用仓储容量；定价策略方面，两阶段定价较合理，且此时当季商品折扣销售更有利。

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