基于历史事件的全球海啸灾害时空分异规律及风险评估

Study about tsunami is significant to make strategies for the construction of infrastructure and the development of some industries all over the world. This project aims to combine multi-source tsunami data, such as tsunami's hazards (i.e. earthquake, volcano or landslide) and its intensity, tsunami’s severity (i.e. events' influence ranges and runup high of each wave) and disaster losses (i.e. the loss about people, property and goods). Based on these data, we will establish a spatio-temporal database about process of tsunami events in pasted global millennium. After that, we will use spatial statistics and analysis methods in GIS fields, fractal analysis and long time series analysis methods in system science fields to detect spatio-temporal range about tsunamis, analysis spatial variation laws and time periodic laws. And then, based on the historical disaster events probability and statistical method, we will establish the curves of hazard factors’ exceedance probability, the curves of exposure and vulnerability about bearing bodies and the relationship between intensity of hazards factors and loss of bearing body. Finally, we integrate the result of mentioned above to evaluate tsunami risk from global view. The achievements of the project could provide some science information for formulating and promoting of China's global strategy.

海啸研究对基础设施的建设及部分产业发展战略的制定有重要意义。本项目拟综合研究海啸成因及强度（如，地震、火山、滑坡）、海啸严重程度（如，海啸的影响范围、海浪及数次浪爬的高度）以及灾害损失程度（如，人财物的损失）的相关数据，建立全球千年海啸事件时空过程数据库；利用GIS的空间统计分析方法、系统科学的分形与长时间序列分析方法，探测海啸事件时空聚集的显著度，分析全球海啸发生的空间分异规律及时间周期；基于历史灾情概率统计方法，建立不同地带的海啸致灾因子超越概率曲线，建立承灾体暴露性/脆弱性曲线，建立不同致灾因子强度与承灾体损失之间的关系，综合评价全球不同区域的海啸风险程度，为我国全球战略的制定和推进提供科学依据。

海啸研究对基础设施的建设及部分产业发展战略的制定有重要意义。本项目拟综合研究海啸成因及强度（如，地震、火山、滑坡）、海啸严重程度（如，海啸的影响范围、海浪及数次浪爬的高度）以及灾害损失程度（如，人财物的损失）的相关数据，建立全球千年海啸事件时空过程数据库；利用GIS的空间统计分析方法、系统科学的分形与长时间序列分析方法，探测海啸事件时空聚集的显著度，分析全球海啸发生的空间分异规律及时间周期；基于历史灾情概率统计方法，建立不同地带的海啸致灾因子超越概率曲线，建立承灾体暴露性/脆弱性曲线，建立不同致灾因子强度与承灾体损失之间的关系，综合评价全球不同区域的海啸风险程度，为我国全球战略的制定和推进提供科学依据。

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