耦合作物生长过程模型与LCA的甜高粱能源潜力研究

The development of non-grain based fuel ethanol is an effective way to meet the needs of China's energy strategy for sustainable development, alleviation energy shortages and mitigation climate change. However, non-grain energy plants haven’t been studied long enough to generate sufficient data. Some controversy remains about the effects of non-grain based fuel ethanol development on the economy, society and environment. So, a key problem is how to estimate the potential of non-grain energy plants based fuel ethanol scientifically. Most of the current literature is devoted to experimental or theoretical evaluations in estimating the energy plants potential of a certain energy plant for unit volume or unit mass. The result was used as an average level in a certain region which ignored the spatial variations among the region. .The main objective of this project is to develop an operational approach for comprehensive evaluation of fuel ethanol potential from large scale cultivation of sweet sorghum. A method, land surface process models coupled with life cycle analysis (LCA), will be established to evaluate the potential fuel ethanol production, energy efficiency and environmental impacts throughout the whole life cycle at grid level. The factors used for LCA and parameters used for land surface process models localization will be obtained from the field survey in sweet sorghum planting base in Shandong province. .In this project, the spatial distribution of marginal land resources suitable for sweet sorghum cultivation will be determined first. Then, the potential fuel ethanol production from sweet sorghum will be established by combining land surface process models with LCA, associating with the energy efficiency, environmental impacts and economics. The results of this project will provide an important theoretical support and typical case studies for relevant researches, achieving the targets of greenhouse gases emission reduction and also the fuel ethanol industry planning in China.

发展基于非粮能源植物的燃料乙醇是满足我国能源可持续发展战略需求、缓解能源短缺与气候变化问题的重要途径。非粮能源植物的开发利用时间相对较短，缺乏相关研究工作的积累和资料记载，对于其发展过程中带来的环境问题也存在较大争议。国内外现有的作物能源潜力评价方法大多用“单位质量燃料乙醇”来反映区域内平均水平，忽略了区域地理空间差异。本项目拟以非粮作物甜高粱为例，结合能源植物示范区调研数据，发展一种耦合分布式生长过程模型与生命周期分析（life cycle analysis, LCA）的技术方法，对甜高粱的能源潜力进行综合评估。重点突破基于公里格网的、我国本土化的甜高粱燃料乙醇能源潜力评估方法，包括生命周期净能量平衡模型、环境影响评价模型以及经济性评价模型，实现甜高粱从原料种植到燃料乙醇分配整个过程中的能源潜力评估，为相关科学研究、温室气体减排目标的实现以及我国能源作物发展布局规划提供科学依据。

生物燃料乙醇的推广和使用是目前满足我国能源可持续发展战略需求、缓解能源短缺与气候变化问题的重要途径。对非粮燃料乙醇燃料乙醇资源潜力的高精度、定量化评估，是我国实现车用乙醇汽油全面推广的重要基础。本项目以非粮作物甜高粱为例，结合能源植物种植基地调研和测试分析数据，发展了一种耦合分布式生长过程模型与生命周期评价的技术方法，对甜高粱的燃料乙醇转化潜力进行了综合评估。研究中重点突破了基于公里格网的、我国本土化的甜高粱燃料乙醇能源潜力评估方法，包括生命周期净能量平衡模型、环境影响评价模型以及经济性评价模型，实现了从原料种植到燃料乙醇分配整个过程中甜高粱规模化发展的能源潜力评估，形成了一套完整的甜高粱能源潜力评估体系。.在作物生长过程模拟方面，选择三种作物生长过程模型（APSIM模型、DSSAT模型、GEPIC模型），基于甜高粱种植试验基地的调研、测试和咨询，对各模型参数进行本地化率定，进而对适宜种植甜高粱的边际土地资源上甜高粱的产量进行了空间模拟。通过模型模拟结果的精度验证与对比分析，认为：GEPIC模型易操作性最强，DSSAT模型空间分辨率较高，APSIM模型不适用于本研究中边际土地资源上甜高粱生长过程的模拟。.在全国尺度和山东省东营能源植物种植基地，开展了适宜种植甜高粱的土地资源分析、净能量平衡模型、环境影响评价和经济性评价模型的参数率定工作，估算了利用甜高粱规模化发展生燃料乙醇的潜力。研究结果表明，我国适宜发展甜高粱的边际土地资源数量为5336.34万公顷，总产量约20.78亿吨，可转化为约1.29亿吨的燃料乙醇。我国发展甜高粱燃料乙醇的净能量盈余总量为1.04E+08万MJ，生命周期总环境影响指数为37872人当量，最为显著的环境影响类型为全球变暖潜势（GWP）。经济性评价结果显示，甜高粱燃料乙醇生产全生命周期价值产投比分别为1.30。研究成果为国家能源局、国家可再生能源中心等机构和国内外众多学者采用。

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