异质性约束下黄土高原苹果干旱风险的分类适应性管理研究

There are the practical problem of poor effective managements for regional climate risk, and the academic issue of lacking consistent empirical supports for the hypothesis "improving the livelihoods capital increases adaptive capacity and reduces vulnerability". The project explores classification adaptive management strategy for the apple-drought risk in the Loess Plateau to prove correlation mechanism between the rural household livelihoods capital (RHLC), adaptive capacity (AC) and vulnerability (V) under the heterogeneity constraints. We try to find that constrained by the heterogeneity of rural households and region, increasing the livelihoods capital does not necessarily reduce vulnerability; adjustment of the rural household livelihoods capital index (RHLCI) which significantly affect V and AC, and implementation of the classification adaptive management strategy can effectively reduce V. Collecting the panel data from important apple producing counties in the Loess Plateau, we assesses vulnerability and adaptive capacity of apple to drought using apples yield and drought index, whereby classifies the research area into apple eugenics , tolerant, appropriate and sensitive subareas; independent RHLCIs were screened through tested substitution and complementation firstly, then we identify significant RHLCIs effecting AC by the random and fixed effects regression model, and recognize significantly RHLCIs effecting V by the spatial-lag econometric models. We propose regional adaptive management strategies according to the last selected RHLCIs. This project provides a scientific basis for the theory and practice of regional climate risk assessment and adaptive management.

针对区域气候风险缺乏有效管理的现实难题，和"提高生计资本增加适应性能力，降低脆弱性"假设缺乏一致经验支持的学术问题，本项目研究黄土高原苹果干旱风险的分类适应性管理策略，旨在证明异质性约束下农户生计资本、适应性能力和脆弱性之间关联机制：在农户和区域异质性约束下，增加生计资本并不必然降低脆弱性；调整显著影响适应性能力和脆弱性的农户生计资本指标，实施分类适应性管理策略，能够有效降低脆弱性。本项目搜集黄土高原苹果重点生产县的面板数据，用苹果产量与干旱指数评估苹果的干旱适应性能力和脆弱性，据此把调研区划分为苹果优生、耐受、适宜和敏感四大区；通过替代性和互补性检验筛选出独立的农户生计资本指标，用随机和固定效应回归模型识别显著影响适应性能力的农户生计资本指标，用空间滞后计量模型识别显著影响脆弱性的农户生计资本指标，根据被选农户生计资本指标为各地提出适应性管理策略。这为区域气候风险评估和适应性管理的理论与实践提供科学依据。

根据黄土高原苹果气候灾害管理的难题，在政府间气候变化委员会脆弱性评价和可持续生计（IPCC-SLT）框架下界定生计资本、脆弱性与适应性能力的内涵、外延及其关系演绎逻辑，提出异质性约束下农户生计资本如何影响气候脆弱性和适应性能力的理论问题。为测量黄土高原苹果生产的气候风险，使用黄土高原苹果主产县调查数据，计算农户感知脆弱性指数，通过多元回归分别探讨生计资本指标与两类气温敏感和气温耐受两类农户感知脆弱性的关系，计算和比较陕西陕北和关中农户生计脆弱性指数（LVI）和气候变化脆弱性指数（IPCC-LVI）；通过对社会，人力，物质，自然和金融资本之间的替代性和互补性分析评估了中国黄土高原苹果农民对干旱事件的适应性能力，检验了13个互补生计资本指标对农民适应性能力的影响；在区县层面用逐步回归的方法识别资本指标之间的互补和替代关系，用空间滞后模型分析互补和替代指标对苹果脆弱性的影响。验证了“增加生计资本未必会提高适宜能力，降低脆弱性；异质性约束下生计资本之间存在互补性和替代性，增加了互补性资本可以提高适应性能力”的假设，为不同类型的脆弱性地区或者农户提出了分类适应性管理策略。

内容获取失败，请点击重试