耕地轮作休耕政策对农业土地利用变化的影响研究——基于多元经营主体行为响应的视角

The Crop Rotation and Fallow System is a national strategic requirement of rural revitalization in the new era. With the expanding of the pilot scale, it has become a hot topic in land use management in China. Whether the new policy is conducted scientifically and reasonably or not would directly influence the food security, the ecological security and the agricultural land use in China. Current research is relatively weak in the theoretical and empirical study, especially lacking quantitative research of its effect and potential land use risk after implementation. Based on this, taking some pilot point with different types as the examples, adopting multidisciplinary theory and methods of geography, sociology and psychology theories and the technology in 3S (RS, GIS and GPS), in the framework of “policy change - agricultural operators’ cognition and response - land use change”, this project explores the behavior response of different agricultural operators to the Crop Rotation and Fallow System and its effects on land use change. More attention was paid to some reverse cognition and responses, such as non-agriculturalization, farmland abandoned and wasteland opened up. This project would reveal the microcosmic mechanism of rotation fallow policy on agricultural land use change, and empirically analyzes its "direct influence", "displacement effect" and "external effect". This study is expected to enrich and expand the theory, perspectives, and methods of the study on the Crop Rotation and Fallow System, in order to provide a reference for scientific implementation of the policy and sustainable development of agriculture in China.

耕地轮作休耕是新时代实施乡村振兴战略的重要举措之一，随着其在全国逐步试点和展开，将对我国农业土地利用产生重大影响。针对目前国内轮作休耕的理论和实证研究薄弱，缺乏实施后的定量影响评估，尤其对其潜在的土地利用风险关注不足的现状，本项目拟以不同类型轮作休耕区为例，运用地理学、社会学等多学科交叉分析方法，以“政策变化—主体响应—土地利用变化效应”为分析框架，阐明轮作休耕实施过程中的多元经营主体行为响应及其土地利用变化效应，尤其关注多元经营主体的消极认知和逆向响应，及其导致的轮作休耕实施区和其他关联区域“非农化”、“撂荒”、“开荒”等与政策预期相悖的土地利用问题。通过多时空尺度的研究，揭示轮作休耕政策对农业土地利用变化影响的微观机理，实证其对农业土地利用变化的“直接影响”、“移位效应”和“外部效应”，以期丰富轮作休耕研究的理论、视角和方法，为科学推进轮作休耕政策和促进农业可持续发展提供决策参考。

围绕项目任务书拟定的研究总体目标和年度计划安排，从宏观上梳理了国内外耕地轮作休耕的理论方法，以安徽省、湖南省、贵州省、云南省为研究对象，借助实地调研等手段搜集案例地千余份农户问卷等相关资料，在此基础上对耕地轮作休耕对农业土地利用变化的影响研究、农户轮作休耕措施采纳及影响因素研究、农户耕地轮作休耕意愿与行为悖离研究、气候智慧型农业：概念辨析、基本议题和中国实践启示等内容开展了研究。本课题从农户土地利用行为决策的视角出发，丰富了耕地轮作休耕的研究内容和理论体系，为耕地轮作休耕技术实践推广提供了方法，为调研地以及其他地区耕地轮作休耕政策完善提供了理论和实践的指导。

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