面向风电消纳的电采暖负荷群多维时移特性建模及协调调度机理研究

Due to the co-existence of high-penetration wind power and large-scale CHP, the flexibility of northern power grid of China is scarce, there exits huge electric heating load in northern China, and the flexibility of northern power grid can be increased by exploiting its time shift characteristic. At present, the heating load model cannot reflect the influence of the ambient temperature, building thermal characteristics and heating demand on time shift characteristic of the electric heating load, which hinders its application in power system. Therefore, the method combining theoretical analysis and experimental analysis is adopted in this project, and the theories such as building heat transfer process, multivariate analysis and multidimensional probability distribution are used, so as to reveal the clustering and interaction mechanism between the measured parameters such as ambient temperature, building thermal characteristics and user thermal demand, then form the multidimensional time shift characteristic modeling method of electric heating load group based on the constraints of power grid’s flexible scheduling requirement; further, the coordination mechanism between time shift characteristic of electric heating load group and multi-time scale scheduling requirements in power system with wind power is studied, thus its coordinated scheduling method and hierarchical scheduling mechanism for multi-time scale wind power accommodation is built. The research will enrich the electric heating load modeling and its optimization scheduling theory, and the result has great application value on the improvement of the power grid’s flexibility and large-scale wind power accommodation in northern China.

高渗透率风电和大规模热电联产并存，导致我国北方电网灵活资源稀缺，而北方地区具有体量巨大的电采暖负荷，挖掘其时移特性，可提升北方电网灵活调节能力。目前，电采暖负荷模型尚无法反映环境温度、建筑物热特性、用户热需求特性等多维参数对电采暖负荷时移特性的影响，阻碍其在电力系统中的实际应用。本项目采用理论与实验相结合的方法，利用建筑物传热过程、多元分析和多维概率分布等理论，揭示影响电采暖负荷时移特性的环境温度、建筑物热特性和用户热需求特性等典型实测参数间的聚类、交互机理，形成基于电网灵活调度需求约束的电采暖负荷群多维时移特性建模方法，并分析电采暖负荷群多维时移特性与含风电电力系统的多时间尺度调度需求间的协调机制，构建基于多时间尺度风电消纳的电采暖负荷协调调度方法和分层调度机制。课题研究将丰富电采暖负荷建模及其优化调度理论。研究成果在提升北方电网的灵活调节能力、促进大规模风电消纳中具有巨大的应用价值。

新能源为主体的新型电力系统将面临尖锐的调节资源供需矛盾，电采暖负荷作为一种新兴的需求侧灵活资源，能够有效促进风电等大规模可再生能源的消纳。如何挖掘电采暖负荷群的调节潜力，揭示多时间尺度风电功率与电采暖负荷群的高效协调机制是亟待解决的关键问题。本项目采用理论与实验相结合的方法，通过开展多场景电采暖负荷运行实验，采集和分析电采暖负荷运行数据，识别典型电采暖负荷时移特性参数及其耦合关系，构建电采暖负荷时移特性模型，解析电采暖负荷时移能力。由此，针对日前和实时风电功率消纳需求，构建了电采暖负荷群协调调度方法；针对电采暖负荷的异质性和分散性，构建了基于分布式控制、负荷群排序和多周期博弈的分层协调调度方法，实现对电采暖负荷群快速、精准、高效地控制。项目的研究成果为利用电采暖负荷群时移特性提升电网灵活调节能力，提供了快速、有效、可行的调度架构、调度策略和计算方法，验证了电采暖负荷提供灵活调节能力的经济可行性，为后续电采暖负荷建模、控制等研究提供了数据基础和理论依据。

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