合同节水管理中不确定风险评估、收益分配机制和节水效益评价

The mode of Water Saving Management Contract (WSMC) is an essential measure to implement the water conservancy policy in the new era, attract the social capital to participate in the water-saving project and promote the construction of water-saving society. Now, the systematic theory system of WSMC is not complete and the operation mode is not perfect, which lead to insufficient internal motivation of enterprises, users and other resources for participating in water conservation. The project intends to make full use of optimization theory, risk theory, game theory, and social network theory to conduct a study on three types of modes including water-saving benefit sharing type, water-saving guarantee type and fixed investment return type. The project focuses on four issues: 1) To build a predict model of water saving potential for different users, and study the formulation strategy of water quotas and make optimal allocation of water resources. 2) To make risk identification, explore risk factors and establish an uncertain risk evaluation system for three modes of WSMC under uncertain environment. 3) By analyzing the influencing factors of profit allocation, the allocation strategy of alliance's benefits under uncertainty is generated. 4) A water-saving benefit evaluation system for WSMC is built, in which the direct economic benefits and water value is studied, and the social benefit is characterized via water-saving awareness and word of mouth communication. This research project will establish a theoretical system for WSMC and provide theoretical basis for scientific decision-making.

合同节水管理模式是落实新时期水利工作方针、吸引社会资本参与节水工作、推动节水型社会建设的重要举措。由于缺乏系统的合同节水管理理论体系和运行模式不够完善等因素，导致企业、用户及社会资本等参与节水的动力不足。本项目拟综合运用最优化理论、风险理论、博弈论、社会网络理论等理论，分别对节水效益分享型、节水效益保证型、固定投资回报型等三种合同节水管理运行模式展开四个方面的研究：1）建立用户节水潜力预测模型，研究用水定额制定策略和水资源优化配置问题；2）对合同节水管理项目进行风险识别、挖掘风险因素、建立不确定环境下的风险评估体系；3）分析收益分配的影响因素，研究各联盟在不确定环境下的收益分配方案；4）研究合同节水管理项目的直接经济效益、水价值，从提升用户节水意识和口碑传播效益视角评估合同节水管理产生的社会效益，建立节水效益评价体系。本项目研究成果将建立合同节水管理的理论体系，为科学决策提供理论依据。

合同节水管理模式是基于市场机制的节水新举措。由于缺乏系统的合同节水管理理论体系和运行模式不够完善等因素，导致企业、用户及社会资本等参与节水的动力不足。本项目研究节水效益分享型、节水效果保证型、固定投资回报型等三种合同节水管理运行模式的水资源配置、风险评估、利益分配和效益评价等问题。首先，研究了不同类型用户的需水量预测问题，建立了多种情形下水资源优化配置方案。其次，识别了合同节水管理项目的风险因素，建立了不确定环境下风险评估体系。然后，分析了利益分配的影响因素，建立了不同运行模式下的收益分配方案。接下来，研究了合同节水管理项目经济效益和社会效益，建立了节水效益评价体系。最后，研究了合同节水管理项目合同期优化问题，初步形成了合同参数优化方案。应用提出的模型及方法，对提升节水服务企业的风险防范能力、减少用水户项目实施阻碍、提高社会资本参与积极性等现实问题提供决策参考。

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