严寒地区基于城市尺度建筑能耗模型与空间分析技术整合的节能城市规划研究

Under the background of fast acceleration of urbanization in China, the building energy consumption in China increases year by year and the proportion in the total energy consumption is growing, at the same time the task of realizing energy saving and emission reduction is very taxing. From the view of urban planning, combining the studies of building energy consumption models in urban scale and the technology of integrating urban forms analysis, together with making energy-saving planning and policy measures, are of strategic importance. This research takes a typical winter city-Harbin as the research object, quantifying the spatial distribution characteristics with different types of building energy consumption density through SAR and analyzing the spatial influencing factors. Some statistical models and geographically weighted regression model methods are used in the prediction of urban energy consumption. Meanwhile the research builds the urban building energy consumption models based on agent based model with the energy uses' influence on building energy consumption and energy efficiency. In addition, this research develops the technology of integrating urban forms, using constructing the system of building energy consumption models in urban scale and the technology of integrating urban forms analysis to realize the simulation and evaluation of energy consumption under different energy saving policy in severe cold regions. This research provides energy saving strategies in the view of urban planning in severe cold regions, meanwhile making scientific and reasonable urban analysis tools for urban planners and improving the total energy efficiency level of winter cities.

随着中国城镇化进程的发展，城市建筑能耗所占能耗总量的比重逐年增加，节能减排的任务更加艰巨。从城市规划的视角出发，研究城市尺度建筑能耗模型与城市空间分析技术的整合并提出相应节能建议具有重要意义。课题以严寒地区城市哈尔滨为研究对象，采用空间分析技术与统计模型相结合的方法量化城市建筑能耗的空间分布特征。通过定性与定量分析结合的方法对城市建筑能耗空间影响因素的敏感性进行量化分析，对城市建筑能耗需求进行初步预测，并采用反演分析方法对模型进行校准和验证。在此基础上，构建基于智能主体的城市建筑能耗模型，综合考虑使用主体对建筑能耗和节能绩效的影响。最后，通过构建城市尺度的建筑能耗模型与空间分析技术整合的集成系统，实现对严寒地区城市不同规划策略情景下能耗的模拟与评估，进一步提出严寒地区城市节能规划策略建议，在提高城市整体能源效率水平的同时也为政府和规划人员提供更加科学、快捷和有效的决策工具。

从城市尺度进行建筑能耗分析及预测的研究在国内刚刚起步。同时，严寒地区城市建筑能耗所面临的节能挑战较气候温和区域更加严峻。课题选取严寒地区代表性城市哈尔滨为研究区域，对严寒地区城市尺度建筑能耗模拟预测及建筑节能导向城市规划进行研究。课题采用城市空间分析技术对严寒地区城市建筑能耗的空间分布特征进行量化分析；进一步利用敏感性分析及相关性分析定量识别和计算严寒地区城市建筑能耗的城市形态、气候及用能行为影响因素；进而，基于不同城市形态下建筑能耗的模拟结果以及使用者主体行为的调研分析结果，将空间分析技术、严寒气候环境背景和使用者用能行为与建筑能耗需求模拟预测有机结合；最后，以上述研究为基础，搭建城市建筑能耗与空间分析集成系统，提出适用于我国严寒地区特征的城市节能规划策略及优化建议。

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