不确定性环境下含多端智能软开关的高可靠主动配电网规划方法

Due to the integrating of soft open point and the increasing of uncertainties, the active distribution network planning is facing enormous challenges. This project studies the optimal planning method of high-reliability active distribution network with multi-terminal soft open point considering the uncertainties of source, network and load. Firstly, the steady-state model of the multi-terminal soft open point is established, the pattern of active distribution network based on the flexible interconnection of multi-terminal soft open point is proposed, and the mutual coupling mechanism between the multi-terminal soft open point and the active distribution network is then explored. Secondly, the models of stochastic uncertainties of source, network and load are established. The high-order uncertainties are modeled when the probability parameters of uncertain factors are difficult to grasp. Besides, the processing approaches of correlations among uncertainties are studied. Thirdly, the reliability evaluation model considering stochastic uncertainties is established. The risk indicators and risk control strategies are studied. A risk-based planning method for high-reliability active distribution network with multi-terminal soft open point is then proposed. Finally, the reliability evaluation model considering high-order uncertainties is established, and the conservative control technique of distributionally robust model is researched. A distributionally robust planning method for high-reliability active distribution network with multi-terminal soft open point is proposed. This project can provide theoretical guidance to the power electronics evolution of active distribution network in uncertain environment.

智能软开关的接入和不确定性的增强给主动配电网规划带来了巨大挑战。本项目全面考虑“源-网-荷”各环节不确定性，研究含多端智能软开关的高可靠主动配电网规划方法。首先，建立多端智能软开关稳态模型，提出基于多端智能软开关柔性互联的主动配电网组网形态，探究多端智能软开关与主动配电网相互耦合机理；其次，建立“源-网-荷”随机不确定性模型和概率分布参数难以准确掌握情况下的高阶不确定性模型，研究不确定性因素间相关性的处理方法；然后，建立考虑随机不确定性的可靠性评估模型，研究风险指标和风险控制策略，提出含多端智能软开关的高可靠主动配电网风险规划方法；最后，建立考虑高阶不确定性的可靠性评估模型，研究分布鲁棒模型的保守性控制技术，提出含多端智能软开关的高可靠主动配电网分布鲁棒规划方法。本项目的研究成果能在规划层面为不确定性环境下的主动配电网电力电子化提供有效的理论指导。

本项目针对多端智能软开关接入和不确定性显著增强给主动配电网规划带来的巨大挑战，首先，建立了多端智能软开关的稳态模型，分析了基于多端智能软开关的主动配电网典型接线结构，并基于此提出了含多端智能软开关的主动配电网安全分析方法，建立了含多端智能软开关的主动配电网最优潮流模型和解算方法，揭示了多端智能软开关与主动配电网相互耦合的机理；然后，建立了主动配电网“源-网-荷”不确定性因素概率分布模型，构建了基于不确定集合和矩信息的高阶不确定性模型，基于相关性度量方法，进一步提出了不确定性因素随机相关性模型和计及相关性的不确定性集合构建方法；再次，提出了随机不确定性下考虑多端智能软开关运行特性的主动配电网可靠性评估方法，建立了高可靠主动配电网多阶段风险规划模型，形成了面向风险可控和高可靠供电的主动配电网综合资源联合优化配置方案。最后，提出了高阶不确定性下计及多端智能软开关运行特性的主动配电网可靠性评估方法，建立了含多端智能软开关的高可靠主动配电网分布鲁棒三层规划模型，并基于列与约束生成算法高效求解规划模型，实现了高可靠主动配电网规划方案的保守性和经济性平衡。IEEE标准测试算例和中国北方某主动配电网实际算例的分析表明该项目成果能够充分发挥多端智能软开关和高比例间歇性分布式电源接入后带来的好处，实现安全、经济、可靠条件下主动配电网综合资源的联合优化配置，能够为不确定性环境下的主动配电网电力电子化提供有效指导。

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