考虑多重不确定性的电力系统低碳政策传导机制及效果评估研究

As one of the largest CO2 emission departments, the power sector has occupied a very important strategic position in the low-carbon development. Low carbon transition cannot do without the policy guidance and support; therefore, low carbon policy transmission route and performance evaluation of power system have become the focus of attention. Aiming at the key scientific issues on the performance evaluation of low-carbon policies in the power system, we are going to start with the analysis of the relationship between policies and influence factors, and explore the influence mechanism and transmission route of low carbon policies in power system. Furthermore, considering multiple uncertainties such as market, technology, policy, and power demand, we construct a stochastic dynamic evaluation model of low-carbon policy in power system, which provides new method and new view for low carbon policy performance evaluation of power system. At the same time, the research pays attention to the combination of theory and practice, evaluating emission reduction potential and cost of national power system low-carbon policy, proposing CO2 emission peak interval, technology path selection and the policy optimization program of national power system. Emphasizing on multidisciplinary integration, the research aims to increase the understanding of low carbon policy transmission route of power system, and construct new method for low carbon policy performance evaluation of power system from the view of uncertainty. Finally, policy suggestions to improve the low carbon policy system for power sector are proposed.

电力系统作为能源活动二氧化碳排放最大的部门，在低碳发展中占据重要的战略地位。低碳转型离不开政策的引导和支持，因此探索电力系统低碳政策的传导机制，开展电力系统低碳政策的效果评价成为关注的焦点。本项目从低碳政策和碳减排影响因素的相互作用关系入手，分析电力系统关键低碳政策的影响机理和传导路径。进而考虑市场、技术、政策、需求等多重不确定性，构建电力系统低碳政策随机动态评价模型，为电力系统低碳政策效果评价提供新方法和新视角。同时，研究注重理论与实践相结合，从减排潜力、减排成本两方面对我国电力系统低碳政策的影响进行定量评估，提出我国电力系统的碳排放峰值区间、技术路径选择和对应的优先政策方案。本项目强调多学科的交叉融合，旨在加深对电力系统低碳政策传导机制的认识，并从不确定性这一新视角，提出电力系统低碳政策评价新的模型方法体系，最终形成我国电力系统低碳政策调整和完善的策略建议。

电力部门低碳政策评估和减排路径探索是我国实现双碳目标过程中面临的重大问题。目前已有大量研究针对电力部门低碳政策减排潜力、成本及经济影响和不同气候目标下的路径分析，但缺乏对电力部门低碳政策减排作用机理的分析，也较少关注多要素深度不确定性下的电力部门转型路径选择问题。此外，在“一带一路”倡议的深入背景下，如何推进“一带一路”电力系统低碳转型也是亟待解决的现实问题。在此背景下，本项目系统梳理了我国电力部门低碳政策，构建我国电力部门低碳政策库。基于不同政策的组合，开展双碳目标下我国电力行业低碳转型路径选择及成本分析，探索电力部门面向碳中和的可行转型路径。进一步，考虑经济、技术、政策等多要素不确定性，对未来中国电力系统低碳转型的能源投入、碳排放路径、水资源消耗和成本代价进行探索性仿真分析，描述各类路径的可能性及其相应生物物理影响，旨在帮助决策者从更宽广的视角来看待电力低碳转型问题。最后，针对“一带一路”地区电力系统低碳转型问题，构建综合评价模型，对“一带一路”电力部门低碳发展情况进行评价，分析中国参与“一带一路”地区煤电投资的影响，并据此提出了相应的政策建议，为“一带一路”地区电力部分低碳发展提供决策支持。

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