气候智慧型农业项目评价的实证研究 ——基于世界银行在中国的示范项目

The climate-smart agriculture demonstration projects, supported by World Bank and the Global Environment Facility of United Nations Development Program, have been brought into force in many countries including China. This research project, from the perspective of the appraisal of climate-smart agriculture projects, proposes to evaluate in the three levels of "project inner - project itself- between projects”, sets up the framework of appraisal and analysis of climate-smart agriculture projects, and takes the World Bank demonstration projects in China as Example for empirical research. Based on selecting the appropriate types of climate-smart agricultural technical measures in the local area, it carries out the priority appraisal of technical measures within the project, and then formulates the priority of different technical measures categories; carries out appraisal of the importance of influencing factors on the project efficiency, which measures the efficiency of climate-smart agriculture project by SBM-DEA model, and evaluates the importance of different factors of project efficiency using regression analysis model; and carries out the comprehensive appraisal of the development level between projects (or between regions), which evaluates the developing differences between climate-smart agriculture projects (or between regions) by selecting multi-dimensional index, and does some comparative analysis at last. The research project involves multidisciplinary areas, which embodies the integration of natural sciences and humanities and social sciences and has broad scientific significance for promoting agricultural development along the path of green, low-carbon and sustainable.

世界银行、联合国开发计划署全球环境基金等支持实施的气候智慧型农业示范项目，已在包括中国在内的多个国家启动。本研究项目从评价的视角，提出在“项目内-项目体-项目间”三个层次上进行评价，构建气候智慧型农业项目评价分析框架，并以世界银行在中国的示范项目为例进行实证研究。在遴选当地适宜的气候智慧型农业技术措施类别基础上，开展项目内技术措施类别优先序评价，拟定不同技术措施类别的优先序；开展项目体效率及影响因素重要性评价，采用SBM-DEA模型测度气候智慧型农业项目体效率，运用回归分析模型评价项目体效率不同影响因素的重要程度；开展项目间（或区域间）发展水平综合评价，选取多维评价指标综合评价气候智慧型农业项目间（或区域间）发展水平差异，并进行比较分析。本项目研究涉及多学科领域，体现自然科学与人文社会科学相融合的特点，对于促进农业绿色、低碳和可持续发展有着广泛的科学意义。

党的二十大报告提出“推进生态优先、节约集约、绿色低碳发展”，这是中国实现中国式现代化的必由之路。农业碳减排是世界各国应对气候变化的重点领域。气候智慧型农业是一种更为综合、更高标准、更加智慧的全新农业发展模式，能够达成农业系统增产、抗逆与碳减排的三方共赢。.自项目立项以来，项目组按照项目申报书内容主要开展气候智慧型农业概念、模型、技术、发展经验和发展战略；气候智慧型农业项目评价；气候智慧型农业理念下农业碳排放碳交易等方面研究工作。其中，通过实地调研发现，稻虾共作模式因其利用生态循环系统发展绿色产业的模式符合湖北省要素禀赋的要求而得到了广泛的发展，实现了生态效益和经济效益的共赢。另外，项目组构建合适的综合效益评价指标体系，利用“熵权法”确定权重，并对它的综合效益进行定量评价，不仅丰富了该领域的研究内容，填补了相应的空白，也为石首市进一步推动该模式的规范发展提供了理论依据。最后，项目组开发的《在水稻种植中通过稻虾模式减少稻田甲烷排放方法学》和《在水稻生产中通过再生稻种植降低稻田甲烷排放的方法学》，均已通过国内权威专家论证，并在湖北潜江、蕲春、洪湖等地区开始应用，为促进农业碳减排提供坚实的数据支撑与技术基础。.气候智慧型农业强调运用气候适应性(智慧型）农业技术应对粮食安全、气候变暖危机、温室气体减排三重挑战。在我国生态文明建设进入以降碳为重点战略方向、推动减污降碳协同增效的关键时期，推动气候智慧型农业发展，减少温室气体排放、缓解气候变化、稳定提高作物产量和促进农业可持续生产以保障粮食安全具有重要意义。

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