基于MAS的船舶人员疏散仿真模型研究

As the mandatory requirements to evacuation ability analysis for passengers’ ships of the International Maritime Organization’s putting forward and the urgent needs of enhance general arrangement accessibility for warship it is imperative to carry out the crews’ evacuation ability evaluation research work. In accordance with the problem constructing passengers’ evacuation model in the ship environment four aspects of the work is carried out in the fund project. Firstly, a multi speed passengers’ evacuation model is set up to meet the requirements of MSC.1/Circ.1238 Circula on personnel’s velocity based on MAS theory. And the research on rules of passengers’ in single exit room is carried out. Secondly, we have research on the impact on the rules of passengers’ evacuation for right partial psychology and push through effect under opposite direction situation. Thirdly, the research on the evacuation route choice based on the ACO algorithm is carried out. The effects to path selection from congestion degree, path attraction force and the passengers’ familiarity degree to path is analyzed and the rules of passengers’ evacuation on T shape cabin environment and multi-exits room are summarized. Finally, Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the simulation outcome in statistical way and to verify the accuracy of passengers’ evacuation simulation model for ships based on MAS. The research results of this project has a promotion effect on reveal the basic law passengers’ evacuation in the ship environment. And it also could provide instructive advices to enhance the general arrangement and passengers’ management.

国际海事组织对客船人员撤离能力进行分析的强制性要求以及大型军舰对提高总布置通达性的迫切需求，使开展船舶人员疏散仿真评估研究变得势在必行。本次课题针对构建高精度船舶人员疏散仿真模型问题开展了四个方面的工作：第一，根据MSC.1/Circ.1238通函对人员运动速度的要求，初步构建基于MAS理论的多速度人员疏散仿真模型，并研究单出口房间内的人群疏散规律。第二，分析相向流条件下右偏心理和推挤穿行作用对人员疏散规律的影响。第三，开展基于ACO算法的人员疏散路径选择模拟研究，分析拥挤度、路径吸引力、人员对路径熟悉程度三种因素对路径选择的影响，归纳多出口舱室和典型舱室环境下人员疏散规律。第四，用蒙特卡洛法统计分析疏散仿真结果，验证基于MAS的船舶人员疏散模型的精度。本次课题的研究结果对揭示船舶环境下的人员疏散的基本规律有所推进，也可为提高船舶总布置通达性和人群管理提供指导性建议。

国际海事组织对客船人员撤离能力进行分析的强制性要求以及大型军舰对提高总布置通达性的迫切需求，使开展船舶人员疏散仿真评估研究变得势在必行。本次课题针对构建高精度船舶人员疏散仿真模型问题开展了四个方面的工作：第一，根据MSC.1/Circ.1238通函对人员运动速度的要求，初步构建基于MAS理论的多速度人员疏散仿真模型，并研究单出口房间内的人群疏散规律。第二，开展了基于Dijkstra算法的人员疏散路线规划研究，并针对船舶多集合站布置的特点优化Dijkstra算法使其适用于船舶总布置条件。第三，开展基于ACO算法的人员疏散路径选择模拟研究，分析拥挤度、路径吸引力、人员对路径熟悉程度三种因素对路径选择的影响，归纳多出口舱室和典型舱室环境下人员疏散规律。第四，基于anyCAD图形库，采用VC++与MATLAB混编的方法构建了船舶人员疏散仿真演示框架，为复杂环境下的人员疏散能力评估验证搭建验证环境，并为最终能够开发实用的高级船舶撤离仿真软件奠定技术基础。本次课题的研究结果对揭示船舶环境下的人员疏散的基本规律有所推进，也可为提高船舶总布置通达性和人群管理提供指导性建议。

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