林业重点工程对农户收入与消除贫困影响实证研究与分析——基于长期大农户样本收入增长、分配和流动等视角

China's rural households' income gap has been extending with high population and difficulties for poverty reduction since 1978; In the meantime, the regional distribution of the rural poor is overlapped with the ecological fragment. Rural poverty reduction, narrowing the rural households' income gap and forest ecological restoration are of the high priorities of the Government of China. Since 1998, the Government of China has gradually launched the Natural Forest Protection Program, the Sloping Land Conversion to Forest Coverage and other 4 forest ecological restoration programs that have impacted rural households' production factor allocation and further affected their income and poverty reduction in rural China. The Government of China has used subsides, compensations and selective or forbidden use of forest resources for these ecological forest restoration programs. Considered limitations and the gaps in the research field, such as the only analyzing the impacts of these forest restoration programs on rural households' income growth, small scale sampling rural households with the short term and static analysis , we plan to use the large scale sampling households of 3375 rural households in 15 counties of 6 provinces and 16-year panel dataset, which will be extended to 19 years with the financial support of the proposed program, to analyze the effects and mechanisms of these forest restoration programs on rural households' income growth, income distribution and income mobility, and further trace the impacts of these factors (income growth, income distribution and income mobility) caused by these forest restoration programs on rural households' income and poverty reductions. The policy scenario analysis to understand these impacts of these forest restoration programs on rural households' income and the rural poverty reduction will be taken.

我国农村贫困人口数量多且消除农村贫困的难度大，农民收入差距呈现扩大态势，农村贫困人口分布与生态恶化区域高度重叠。消除农村贫困、缩小收入差距和改善生态已成为我国政府关注的优先领域。1998年以来，陆续启动了天保和退耕还林工程等6项林业重点工程，并将继续实施，对林业重点工程采取多项政策措施，影响到农民生产要素配置，进而影响农民收入与消除贫困。考虑到已有研究主要关注单一工程对农民收入增长的影响；采用短期小样本；静态研究为主，尚未关注对收入分配与流动等方面的影响不足，有较大改进空间，我们拟对已有的6省区15县3375个样本农户16年的面板数据扩展至19年，从样本农户收入增长、分配及流动等动态角度，研究林业重点工程对农民收入增长、分配及流动等影响机制；进而分析其所产生的农户收入增长、分配及流动变动等对消除贫困的影响；拟开展政策情景研究，分析林业重点工程可能的政策方案或组合对农民收入与消除贫困的影响。

改革开放以来，我国农民收入有了明显增长，贫困人口明显下降，但剩余农村贫困人口的扶贫难度加大；农村贫困人口分布与生态脆弱区高度重叠，兼顾生态改善与增加收入、缩小收入差距及消除贫困已成为我国政府优先政策领域。1998年以来，我国陆续启动了天然林保护等6项林业重点工程。2010年以后，又陆续启动林业重点工程的后续工程。林业重点工程多项政策措施改变了农民生产要素与要素配置，进而影响农民收入。本研究基于6省区、15县、216个行政村、3375个样本农户20年的多层次长期大样本面板数据。采用现代经济学理论和方法，以定量分析为主，开展了林业重点工程对农民收入增长、分配、流动以及收入增长、分配、流动对农村消除贫困的影响研究，并进行了情景模拟分析。我们研究的主要结论为：1）在工程实施初期，退耕还林工程对农户收入的影响不显著，京津风沙源治理与天然林保护等工程的影响为负；随时间推移，退耕还林和京津风沙源治理等工程增加了农户以土地为基础的收入，天然林保护工程的影响由负逐渐转为正。2）退耕还林、天然林保护与防护林等工程对农户持久收入的影响为正；速生丰产林与野生动植物保护等工程的影响为负；京津风沙源治理工程的影响不显著。3）退耕还林与速生丰产林等工程对农户收入流动的影响为正；天然林保护工程的影响为负，京津风沙源治理和防护林等工程的影响不显著。4）林业重点工程拉大了农户收入不平等，贡献度呈出先升后降的态势。5）退耕还林、京津风沙源治理等工程对消除贫困的影响为正，但影响程度偏低；林业重点工程对益贫式增长不显著。6）情景模拟发现：降低退耕还林工程补贴标准会显著降低农户收入；放松天然林保护工程采伐限制对农户收入的影响不显著；调整农业补助标准与粮食价格将显著改变退耕还林工程对农户收入的影响。本研究的科学意义在于：将林业重点工程与农民收入增长、分配、流动和消除贫困或益贫式增长置于一个规范经济学分析框架内并研究了其传导机制，利用多层次长期大样本面板数据和计量经济学方法开展深入实证研究。

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