我国富裕阶层收入与财富流动性特征及机制研究——基于异质性家庭的随机动态模型估计和实证检验

The top groups in the income and wealth distributions usually enjoy the greater social-economic power and capture greater dividends from economic growth. Their income and asset compositions are also significantly different from the rest of residents, and hence their mobility should also exhibit distinctive features. This project aims to investigate the characterized facts and influencing mechanisms of intra-generational income and wealth mobility for the top groups in China, both theoretically and empirically. Firstly, this project will employ a variety of household survey micro datasets to construct multiple rounds of panel data and to describe the unique characteristics of the income and wealth mobility of the top groups in China. Second, we will quantify the contributions of each component of income and wealth to the overall mobility of all sub-groups based on the Pareto property of top income and wealth distributions. In addition, we will examine the top-group mobility influencing factors via canonical econometric strategies and newly developed machine learning estimation strategies. Thirdly, we will construct the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models and conduct various simulations to explore the specific path and influencing mechanism of business operation risks and real estate investment risks. Finally, this project will combine theoretical research and empirical evidence to evaluate a variety of policies which could potentially affect income and wealth mobility, reduce long-term inequality, and find a long-lasting mechanism and optimal policy design to reduce income and wealth gaps.

位于收入与财富顶端的富裕阶层通常掌握了大量的社会与经济资源，并获得更多经济增长红利，也因其收入与资产结构的特殊性，呈现出独特的流动性特征。本项目旨在从实证及理论上探索我国富裕阶层的代内流动性特征事实及其影响机制。首先，本项目将利用多个家庭抽样调查微观数据构造多套追踪面板数据，细致地刻画我国富裕阶层收入与财富流动性的独有特征。其次，将基于顶层收入与财富分布的帕累托统计特性，量化归因各个构成子项对各组富裕家庭流动性的贡献，并结合规范的计量分析方法与前沿的机器学习估计法检验影响富裕阶层收入与财富的流动性因素。第三，建立动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型并通过模拟仿真探索工商业经营风险和房产投资风险等因素影响富裕阶层流动性的具体路径与理论机制。最后，本项目将结合理论研究与实证证据评估多种能够潜在调节收入与财富流动性、缩小长期不平等的政策效果，寻找缩减贫富差距的长效机制和最优政策设计。

掌握富裕阶层收入与财富流动性的异质性特征及机制，将帮助我们更好地理解中国社会整体的流动性。为了实现共同富裕的奋斗目标，通过建立促进收入和财富流动的经济政策与制度，可以有效地缩减贫富差距，长效地改善收入和财富分配格局。本项目采用理论分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法，对我国富裕家庭收入与财富的代内流动性以及整体收入与财富分配等问题进行了科学探究。首先，本项目采用中国家庭金融调查地面板数据，构造富裕阶层收入与财富流动性指标，利用微观抽样调查数据全方位刻画各个富裕阶层的流动性事实特征和收入与财富构成。我们发现近年来，我国富裕群体的收入流动性呈下降趋势，而财富流动性呈上升趋势。但从全球范围横向对比来看，我国富裕阶层的收入和财富流动性仍然处于较高水平。其次，本项目结合规范的计量分析方法以及前沿的机器学习方法，分别对富裕群体收入与财富流动性进行了实证分析，并识别出影响收入和财富流动性的主要贡献因素。我们发现，家庭创业行为及教育背景对收入流动性具有显著的促进作用；而房产对整体财富流动性起着关键作用。同时，我们建立了多个宏观经济学动态随机一般均衡模型，考察多重市场因素和税收政策对收入和财富分布及流动性的影响。特别地，我们发现对资产性收入征税或对财富存量直接征税，都对收入和财富都具有再分配再调节效果。

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