基于情报视角的应急决策推演的智库协同模式研究

The think tank is oriented for the government decision-making services, which promoted to the height of the emergency decision-making, adapted to the fast response requirements of large amount of information, high precision and cross-field, as well as it is essential to be formed an orderly, efficiently and timely collaborative mode of think tank to provide the emergency solution program. The construction of the think tank collaborative mode of emergency decision-making deduction from the intelligence perspective in this project, and generated a profound scientific understanding of the objective law, which highly matched the core link of "problem feature - solutions" by the emergency decision-making, provided scientific methods as well. Firstly, it is significant to established the knowledge base of the framework of the think tank collaborative mode. According to the deep knowledge discovery of double library mapping rules from the think tank and knowledge base, which constructs the knowledge mapping model of dual library, and then research deeply on the knowledge representation of problem-oriented features as the think tank. Secondly, the project starts from the knowledge semantic revelation and organization method of the think tank, and it is emphasized to explore the fine-grained nature of the knowledge content of the think tank by digging down, and also make progress to organize the solutions based on the knowledge organization, to achieve the organization and management of the think tank solutions for the "problem characteristics". Finally, it is vital to build a think-tank coordinated emergency decision-making model based on scenario deduction, which straighten out the path of the scene as first, the following is to describe the multi - elements of the process of characterization. The contribution of this project is to design a structured solution optimization algorithm based on multi-factor constraint, in order to realize the construction and calculation of emergency decision - making model.

面向政府决策服务的智库提升到用于应急决策的高度，必须适应信息量大、精确性高、跨领域多的快速响应要求，形成智库协同模式有序、高效、及时地提供应急解决方案。本项目拟从情报视角架构应急决策推演的智库协同模式，形成对应急决策推演核心环节“问题特征-解决方案”高度匹配的客观规律的深刻科学认识，并提供科学方法。首先，需奠定智库协同模式架构的知识基础，由智库与知识库双库映射规则的深层知识发现，构建双库的知识映射模型，进而深入研究面向智库的问题特征的知识表示；其次，研究智库的知识语义揭示与组织方法，通过向下挖掘探索智库知识内容的细粒度揭示，并向上组织探究基于解决方案的知识组织，实现面向“问题特征”的智库解决方案的组织管理；最后，构建基于情景推演的智库协同应急决策模型，先理顺情景推演的路径，后刻画情景推演进程的多要素描述。设计基于多因素约束条件下的结构化解决方案优选算法，实现应急决策推演模型的构建与计算。

基于情报活动形成的多领域智库集结最优化，有助于智库融入突发事件的预警、发生、发展、恢复等应急响应过程，项目的研究形成了智库协同应急情报体系，帮助各级政府有效应对各类突发事件应急处置中可能存在的科学认识不足、决策犹豫的痛点。项目的系列成果阐述了智库协同应急情报所涉及的理论、技术和方法，刻画了情报在突发事件应急响应中的演变过程，揭示了情报对智库协同决策的机理。研究成果阐述了智库协同应急的思想，理顺了智库应急情报体系理论，架构了智库情报的知识组织并基于知识组织的知识库进行应急决策，探讨了智库协同应急情报流、情报对应急决策的引导、应急情报体系对应急决策的支撑，设计了智库应急的情报服务，提出了政府数据开放模型，刻画了智库应急决策过程，研究成果对提出的理论模型结合突发事件案例进行实例化分析。

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