低碳运营环境下基于多方竞合博弈的多式联运系统干扰管理研究

It is the crucially important task for implementing the facilities connectivity and unimpeded trade in the strategy of “The Belt and Road” of our country to build the low-carbon infrastructure construction and operation on multimodal freight transportation systems which ensure the security of supply chains. Therefore，this project will develop the research on the disruption management issues of multimodal freight transport systems based on carriers’competition and cooperation under the low-carbon operation environment, in order to establish the methodology of multimodal freight transport network systems with a high anti-disruption ability. This study includes: (1) The dynamic competition and coopetition game among carriers of multimodal transport systems under low-carbon operations; (2) Modeling with interdependent network and disruption effects analysis on multimodal freight transport networks under low carbon operations and competition and coopetition; (3) The optimization on the resilience of multimodal freight transport networks based on low-carbon operations and carriers’ competition and coopetition. This project proposes a series of methods to solve the problems, which include the dynamic alliance competition and coopetition game evolutionary model, the modeling and disruption analysis method based on interdependent network, agent-based simulation optimization method on interdependent networks. By combining the theories and methods including game theory, network theory, optimization theory, as well as agent modeling and simulation technique, with management fields including low-carbon operation management and disruption management, this project makes beneficial exploration of comprehensively solving the theoretical issues in disruption management on multimodal freight transport systems under the low-carbon operation environment from the view of multi-dimensional and multi-hierarchy points, and provides a new decision-making method for the development of multimodal freight transport business.

构建确保供应链安全的多式联运系统的基础设施低碳化建设和运营是实现我国“一带一路”战略中设施联通和贸易畅通的重要任务。为此，本项目针对低碳运作环境下考虑承运人竞合博弈的多式联运系统的干扰管理问题开展研究，旨在建立一套具有高度抗干扰能力的多式联运网络系统的构建方法。研究内容包括：（1）低碳运作下多式联运各承运人的动态竞合博弈问题；（2）低碳运作与多方竞合下的多式联运网络的关联网络建模与干扰影响分析；（3）低碳运作与多方竞合下的多式联运网络弹复性优化问题。本项目提出动态联盟竞合博弈演化模型、基于关联网络的建模及干扰分析方法、基于Agent的关联网络仿真优化等方法解决此问题。本项目将博弈论、网络理论、优化理论、Agent建模与仿真等理论方法与低碳运营、干扰管理等相结合，对于从多维、多层次综合解决低碳运营环境下多式联运系统干扰管理中的理论难题做了有益探索，为多式联运业务的发展提供了新的决策手段。

本项目针对多方竞合与低碳运作条件下的集装箱多式联运系统的干扰管理问题开展研究。研究内容包括：1）低碳运作下多式联运各参与方的动态竞合博弈问题；2）多方竞合与低碳下多式联运网络的建模与干扰影响分析；3）多方竞合及低碳运作下的多式联运网络弹复性优化问题。目前项目组已经总体上完成了预期研究目标，理论研究成果包括：提出一套多方竞合与低碳运营条件下面向干扰管理的基于弹复性恢复策略和基于鲁棒性优化的多式联运系统网络的建模理论与方法。具体包括：1）提出基于平台和演化博弈的低碳运作下多式联运各参与方的动态竞合博弈模型；2）提出多方竞合与低碳下多式联运的鲁棒性建模与鲁棒性优化方法；3）提出多式联运网络恢复阶段的基于弹复性的双层优化模型及优化方法。在平台开发和案例分析方面，开发了多式联运网络干扰管理分析平台软件，已开发两项案例并进行了案例分析。目前，已经整理发表的研究成果包括：论文10篇，其中国际学术期刊论文5篇（JCR一区4篇），国内基金委A类期刊论文4篇。已录用基金委A类论文1篇；大会特邀报告1次，获得省部级高校研究成果一等奖1项；培养博士毕业生6名、硕士毕业生8名。目前还有部分成果正在整理之中（包括论文、专著、软件著作权，案例分析和政策建议等）。上述成果已经达到并部分超出了预期研究目标。本项目的科学意义在于：将博弈论、网络理论、优化理论、不确定系统建模与仿真等理论方法与低碳运营、干扰管理等管理领域相结合，在基础设施网络层提出基于弹复性的评价方法以及相互协同的二层优化模型，对原有模型方法进行了拓展和集成优化；在物流运作层提出了在不同低碳政策下的不确定系统的分析方法和基于鲁棒优化的新思路，拓展了随机模型的求解手段；为从多维、多层次综合解决多式联运网络系统分析与优化中的理论难题做了有益的探索。其应用价值在于：为集装箱多式联运业务的绿色运营发展提供了新的决策手段。

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