陆岛一体化土地利用变化对生态系统服务供需的影响机制与优化调控

The interactive development between coastal and island areas is of great significance to improve island comprehensive values，as well as to promote the national strategy of mainland and marine integrated development. However, there is still inadequate understanding of spatiotemporal dynamics of island land use changes and its impact mechanism on supply and demand of ecosystem services, from a perspective of the interactive development between coastal and island areas. Given that fragility of island ecosystem has highlighted the necessity and urgency of optimizing island spatial layout and sustainable development in the new background. Focused on interactive mechanism of land use and its ecosystem services changes, this study firstly intends to characterize the historical spatiotemporal process of island land use changes in the last twenty years with remote sensing and GIS technology. And then this research plans to reveal different characteristics of land use change from the inland to offshore of island, along cross-sea bridges, and among coastal zone. Secondly, supported by big data and model simulation methods, this study intends to analyze spatial changes of supply and demand of island ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity maintenance, water purification and recreational function. And then explores the driving forces of island land use changes on ecosystem services. Thirdly, the influence degree and spatial difference of the island land use change impact on the ecosystem services is identified, which lays the foundation and rules for island spatial allocation optimization. Finally, the island spatial pattern scenario simulation based on the integrated development and ecological protection is carried out, and the strategy of island spatial allocation optimization to match supply and demand of ecosystem services is put forward. The implementation of this project can provide new ideas for in-depth study of ecosystem services in response to island land use changes and provide decision support for coastal green and coordinated development.

陆岛一体化发展对提升海岛综合价值和推进陆海统筹国家战略具有重要意义。当前陆岛一体化进程中海岛土地利用演变规律及其对生态系统服务供需影响机制认识仍存在不足。本课题从陆岛一体化视角，以土地利用变化与生态系统服务供需演变耦合研究为核心，集遥感、GIS和城市大数据，研究海岛近二十年土地利用时空变化，重点分析海岛内陆至近岸、陆岛连通工程沿线、海岸带等不同城市带的差异特征；量化海岛典型生态系统服务供需空间演变规律和矛盾热点区域；分析陆岛一体化驱动海岛土地利用变化对生态系统服务供需关系的影响机制；开展基于陆岛一体化需求和生态系统服务供需匹配机制的海岛土地利用和生态系统服务综合模拟，提出改善海岛生态系统服务供需失衡的土地利用优化布局和管控策略。在实践层面为政府提供更具空间针对性的土地管理建议。本项目有助于丰富海岛土地利用与生态系统服务的作用机制研究，补充陆岛一体化背景下海岛土地利用优化研究。

探究陆岛一体化新背景下海岛土地利用演变规律及其对生态系统服务供需影响机制对于科学管理海岛国土空间，实现海岛可持续发展具有十分重要的理论价值与实践指导意义。本研究基于遥感、GIS和城市大数据，分析了海岛典型的土地利用变化特征、多重生态系统服务供需规律，揭示了海岛生态系统服务权衡关系和供需关系的影响机制，提出基于供需匹配机制的土地利用优化布局策略。主要研究结果表明：（1）陆岛一体化发展伴随显著城市扩张。以宁波、舟山为例，陆域城市率先实现集约化转型，海岛城市扩张蔓延分散，面临土地资源短缺和粗放利用的双重问题。陆岛发展尚未形成功能布局互补、港城深度联动的双核心都市群。（2）舟山海岛土壤保持服务呈现两端分布，固碳功能较为稳定，水文调节功能不强。海岛开发加大导致舟山本岛、近岸港口型海岛生态退化突出，由沿岸蔓延至岛屿内部，高生境斑块不断破碎化。海岛多重生态系统服务存在显著的权衡和协调关系权衡，尤其要重视维持生物多样性功能。（3）生态系统服务供需匹配分析得出舟山海岛低供给、高需求失衡区域分布最广，供需矛盾剧烈；高供给高需求分布少，主要以旅游型海岛为主。高供给、低需求及低供给、低需求集中于尚未开发区。（4）从海岛居民感知视角分析了陆岛一体化对休闲游憩服务的影响，揭示了感知-行为-改善服务的作用路径。经济、环境、社会文化与地方感之间存在显著相关性，不同性别、工作类型和所处岛屿的居民感知不同，本地居民地方认同感增加，年轻人认同感低。满足居民多元化需求和行动意愿有助于改善海岛游憩服务供需关系。（5）海岛型城市形态多中心和功能多中心发展不平衡，功能发展滞后明显。GWR模型揭示多中心布局没有减轻对海岛景观格局负面影响，尤其在次中心周边和围填海区域。加强功能平衡化的多中心布局和局地景观效应研究是促进海岛可持续发展的有效途径。宜居情景下绿色空间供需匹配研究表明绿地面积“供给维度”与绿视率GVI“需求维度”存在显著失配，优化空间布局需要提升海岛绿色网络与人本需求下绿视率的匹配。总体而言，陆岛联动呈现多元化、供需失衡、时空异质等特征，未来发展需要进一步重视陆岛联动发展所引发的空间冲突和环境非正义问题，加强海岛产业结构提升—港城布局柔化—生态友好转型，关注海岛的人（需求）—事（行动）—物（环境）—知（政策）的匹配性，强化基于供需机制优化方案和基于前沿技术的动态定期评估。

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