能源依赖与中国区域经济发展效率的关联机制及其实证研究

The spatial mis-distribution of energy endowment and demand, which causes a large-scale spatial movement effect on energy, intensifies objectively the energy industry dependence of energy-abundant region and the energy consumption dependence of energy-scarce region in China. Therefore, the spatial reasonable distribution of energy has become a crucial influencing factor of harmonious and balanced regional economic development of China. Based on the vertical innovation endogenous growth theory and the actual character of different regional economy, this project will employ TFP growth and economic growth to quantitatively and qualitatively measure the regional economic development efficiency, respectively, and will illuminate theoretically the coupling mechanism of energy industry dependence, energy consumption dependence, TFP and economic growth by establishing and deducing the endogenous growth models of energy-abundant and energy-scarce regions and their inter-regions. Furthermore, the project will carry out an empirical test on the applicability of proposed theoretical model at the regional level of China on the effective control of endogenous problem and geographical spatial effect. Finally, it will propose the feasible policy mechanism for lessening the disparity of regional economic development in order to provide theoretical support and practical guidance for resolving the imbalance of regional economic development in China from the perspective of resource curse and energy rebound effect.

能源禀赋与需求水平的空间错位及其所产生的能源大规模空间转移效应，在客观上加剧了我国能源丰裕区域的能源产业依赖程度，以及能源贫乏区域的能源消费依赖程度。因此，能源空间合理配置已成为影响我国区域经济均衡协调发展的重要因素。本项目拟针对我国不同区域经济的现实特点，基于垂直创新型内生增长理论，利用经济增长和TFP增长分别从数量和质量上对区域经济发展效率予以表征，通过构建能源丰裕区域和能源贫乏区域的内生增长模型，以及更具普适性的跨区域内生增长模型及其演绎推理，对能源产业依赖、能源消费依赖与区域TFP增长及经济增长之间的关联机制予以系统地理论阐释，进而在有效控制内生性问题和地理空间效应条件下，对理论模型在我国区域层面的适用性和解释力进行稳健地实证检验。最后，为缩小我国区域经济发展差距提出合理可行的政策机制，以期从资源诅咒效应和能源回弹效应的视角为破解我国区域经济发展的不均衡问题提供理论支持和现实指导。