“营改增”对生产性服务业与制造业协同融合的影响效应研究

The changes of tax system caused by the "business tax replaced with VAT reform" have a long-term and far-reaching impact impact on the synergy between the producer service and the manufacturing industry. The producer service is an intermediate investment, not a final product. It has the characteristics of value-added and related, and it fits well with the role of the “camp reform” policy. However, few scholars pay attention to the economic meaning of the synergy between the producer service and the manufacturing industry. The project attempts to answer the following questions: First, in-depth study of the typical facts and interactions of the synergistic integration of the producer service and the manufacturing industry in China, and make accurate calculations; Second, the creation of macro-analytical framework of“camp reform” affects the producer service and manufacturing industry. Then the measurement test from the three levels of benchmark test, mechanism test and long-term mechanism; thirdly, the Pareto index is used to simulate the production scale of China's producer service industry and manufacturing scale, and put forward the strategic system of synergy between China's producer service and manufacturing industry.This project studies the theoretical mechanism and micro-foundation effect of "business tax replaced with VAT reform" on the synergy between producer service and manufacturing industry, which is conducive to accelerating the upgrading of manufacturing industry, overcoming Baumol's cost disease, cracking the obstacles that hinder the "Made in China" upgrade, and promoting China has moved from a big manufacturing country to a power manufacturing country.

“营改增”所引致的税制变迁对生产性服务业与制造业的协同融合产生长期深远的影响。生产性服务业属于中间投入，而非最终产品，具有增值性和关联性特点，很好的契合了“营改增”政策的作用基础。但鲜有学者重视“营改增”影响生产性服务业与制造业协同融合的经济学含义。本项目尝试回答以下问题：第一，深入考察我国生产性服务业与制造业协同融合的典型事实、互动关系，并进行精准测算；第二，创建“营改增”影响生产性服务业与制造业协同融合的宏观分析框架，进而从基准检验、机制检验、长效机制三个层面进行计量检验；第三，采用Pareto指数对我国生产性服务业与制造业规模分布进行政策模拟，提出我国生产性服务业与制造业协同融合的策略体系。本项目研究“营改增”影响生产性服务业与制造业协同融合的理论机制及其微观基础，有利于加快制造业升级，克服鲍莫尔成本病，破解阻碍“中国制造”升级难题，推动中国由制造大国走向制造强国。

中国虽然是制造业大国，但与世界先进制造业强国相比，落后的生产性服务业成为阻碍制造业升级的桎梏，要走新型工业化道路，破解阻碍 “中国制造”升级难题，生产性服务业与制造业的协同融合是关键，事关习近平总书记“制造强国”战略构想的实现。2022年10月，党的二十大报告提出要构建优质高效的服务业新体系，推动现代服务业同先进制造业、现代农业深度融合。生产性服务业与制造业的协同融合不仅已成为全球产业发展的主流趋势，而且被视为克服鲍莫尔成本病的最有效途径。生产性服务业属于制造业的中间投入，而非最终产品，具有增值性和关联性特点，非常契合“营改增”政策的实施基础。本项目对“营改增”影响生产性服务业与制造业协同耦合的理论机制进行了阐释，依据《国民经济行业分类》标准（GB/T4754-2017）、生产性服务业分类（2019）新标准，运用灰色GM（1，N）模型与产业协同集聚相对指数法，从产业融合、城市群集聚层面精准测算我国生产性服务业与制造业的协同耦合程度。研究发现，生产性服务业与制造业协同耦合程度不断加深，已经从制造业主导走向二者协同耦合模式。在产业层面上，伴随着互联网技术的发展与应用，高端服务业与制造业的协同耦合程度加深；在城市群层面上，生产性服务业与制造业总体呈现出一定的区域空间集聚化发展趋势，融合模式由单一城市或地区的协同集聚，逐渐转变为城市群内部之间的协同集聚。在此基础上，利用我国行业层面数据，计量检验“营改增”影响生产性服务业与制造业协同耦合的政策效果。结果发现：“营改增”不但能够直接促进生产性服务业与制造业协同耦合，相对于低端生产性服务业，“营改增”促进高端服务业与制造业的协同耦合效果更好。最后，提出我国生产性服务业与制造业协同耦的政策建议，有利于加快制造业升级，实现生产性服务业与制造业高质量发展，推动中国由制造大国走向制造强国。

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