不确定扰动下光伏扶贫PPP项目一体化决策及政策研究

The development of public-private-partnership (PPP) solar photovoltaic (PV) projects for poverty alleviation is not only crucial to the poverty alleviation, but also promotes the development of the solar PV industry. However, risks will affect the life-cycle decisions related to PPP solar PV projects for poverty alleviation. Therefore, combined with the processes of project management and risks embedded in the decisions, this study proposes an integrated decision analysis, which consists of the value estimation, cooperation strategy and risk measurement. This analysis is useful for both the government and the corporation.. Firstly, combined with excessive grid-connected electricity and the operating supporting schemes in China, we investigate the economics and uncertain factors of the PPP solar PV project for poverty alleviation, then apply the contingent claims analysis to construct two real options models - the model for feed-in tariff and the model for renewable energy certificate. Based on the results of the two models, we can analyze the impacts of risk factors on option values and the investment timing of the project.. Secondly, we use the information advantage to represent the information asymmetry between the government and the corporation, then we set up bargaining models by taking the information advantage into consideration. Based on the results, we can study how the estimated revenue of the project is divided between the government and the corporation.. Thirdly, we choose the risk factors based on the risk exposure of the project, then by applying the probabilistic model and Value at Risk, we investigate the impacts of risk factors on the project' net present value for feed-in tariff scenario and renewable energy certificate scenario.. Finally, we investigate the impacts of the policy on the value estimation, cooperation strategy and risk measurement, and propose policy recommendations thereafter.. The results of this study not only provide a new perspective for decision-makings under uncertainty, but also provide the government and corporation with suggestions.

光伏扶贫PPP项目在脱贫攻坚的同时可促进光伏产业发展，但风险因素影响着光伏扶贫PPP项目生命周期中的各项决策。因而，本研究结合项目管理全过程和隐含在决策背后的风险，提出以项目估值、合作策略和风险监测为主体的一体化决策研究，为政府和企业提供参考。首先，结合余电上网特征和现行支持政策，对项目经济性和不确定性进行梳理，利用或有债权方法构建并求解上网电价政策和绿证政策下的实物期权模型，探寻风险对期权价值和项目投资时机的影响；其次，将信息优势作为表征信息不对称的变量引入双边竞价模型中，探究政府和企业如何对估算的项目收益进行分配；然后，依据项目运营阶段风险来源选定风险因素，利用概率模型和在险价值探索风险对上网电价政策和绿证政策下的项目净现值影响；最后，综合分析政策对项目估值、合作策略和风险监测影响，提出政策建议。本研究成果不仅可从新的视角探索不确定条件下项目决策方法，还可为政府和企业决策提供依据。

光伏扶贫是我国政府制定的一项精准扶贫措施，是巩固脱贫攻坚成果的关键战略之一，也可作为衔接乡村振兴战略的关键举措。但建设光伏扶贫电站需要大量资金，为缓解政府和农户资金压力，可借助PPP模式引导社会资本投资。光伏扶贫PPP电站从建设到运营阶段涉及众多决策，其中最为关键决策包括投资决策、合作策略和风险管理。这些决策均受不确定因素干扰，因而，有必要在考虑不确定性干扰的前提下围绕以上三项关键决策开展相关研究，为决策相关主体提供参考。此外，还有必要论证发展可再生能源的必要性。针对不确定扰动下的投资决策问题，本项目探讨了YieldCo融资在光伏产业中的适用性，将分红比例引入实物期权模型中，分别计算了YieldCo模式下光伏项目的期权价值和投资时机，归纳总结关键变量对期权价值和投资时机的影响规律，并分析了分红比例与其他参数联动的影响。此外，还进一步探讨了潜在的技术进步和补贴退坡对投资者行为的影响。针对不确定扰动下的合作策略问题，本项目探讨了光伏扶贫PPP电站三方合作收益分配和合作策略问题，将传统的双边竞价模型扩展至三方竞价模型，同时将影响三方隐藏信息的能力模型化，并引入三方竞价模型中，利用数值分析归纳总结三方实际收益影响规律。针对不确定扰动下的风险管理问题，本项目探讨了光伏扶贫PPP电站运营风险，模型化影响光伏扶贫PPP电站成本和收益的相关因素，构建经济评价模型；并基于此模型，通过专家咨询法、文献调研法等多种方法确定风险因素及其分布，构建概率模型；将在险价值引入概率模型中，量化项目运营风险。针对论证发展可再生能源的必要性问题，根据数据特征，采用与之匹配的计量方法探究可再生能源与碳排放之间的关系以及潜在作用机制，验证可再生能源可降低碳排放；围绕碳市场的减碳及促进可再生能源发展作用，探究碳交易机引导下的可再生能源企业技术创新、CCS技术应用推广以及制氢技术选择开展研究；探究低碳经济对企业供应商选择的影响。

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