基于复杂关联数据分析的科技领军人才识别及其成长模式研究

To build a grand team of innovative scientific talents is one of the most important agenda of our current national efforts in talents cultivation, in which exploration and promotion of pioneering talents in basic high-tech research, as well as growing talent teams are the most fundamental highlights. The current methods of pioneering talents exploration and promotion cannot meet with the needs of accuracy and prospective in our new national talents projects. This project focuses on characterizing the developing stages and patterns in talents cultivation. The project first studies the quantitative characterization of talent features, including personal research strength and leadership, based on scientometrics and social network. Then, it discusses a quantitative description method to discover talents developing stages and sub-stages, and further learns the features of those stages using classification methods. Finally, it proposes a quantitative pattern mining method to extract representative developing patterns in talents cultivation, and explains the inner causes of the emergence of those patterns and analyzes the probabilistic causal relationship based on probabilistic model. The potential research results may give scientific supports for related governmental offices so as to improve the effectiveness in pioneering talents cultivation.

发现和培养高科技基础研究领军人才、培育人才团队是我国人才工作长期关注的关键问题之一。当前领军人才的发现方法与培养策略不能很好地满足我国新型人才计划体系在人才发现与培养过程中对准确性与前瞻性的需求。本项目旨在对人才成长过程中的关键数据及其复杂关联进行分析，研究科技领军人才的发现及其成长模式的刻画与解读。项目首先研究基于科学计量方法与社会网络模型的人才特征定量刻画方法（主要包括个人科研能力与团队领导能力的刻画）。其后，研究定量的人才成长阶段描述方法以发现各人才成长阶段及其子类，并使用分类方法学习各成长阶段所有子类的特征以识别领军人才。最后，研究定量的人才成长规律挖掘方法抽取代表性的成长模式，并基于概率模型解读各成长模式出现的内在原因，以分析不同特征与不同的人才成长轨迹间的概率因果关系。研究成果将为各级科技部门和单位制定相关政策提供建议，从而提高我国领军人才培养工作的效率。

发现和培养高科技基础研究领军人才、培育人才团队是我国人才工作长期关注的关键问题之一。当前领军人才的发现方法与培养策略不能很好地满足我国新型人才计划体系在人才发现与培养过程中对准确性与前瞻性的需求。本项目对人才成长过程中的关键数据及其复杂关联进行分析，研究科技领军人才的发现及其成长模式的刻画与解读。项目首先从个人科研能力与团队能力两个方面，基于科研数据与学术社会网络数据对人才的学术造诣、团队合作、学术流动、社会影响等进行了刻画与解读。其后基于人才指标，使用机器学习方法对人才成长阶段进行了识别，设计了海外优秀华裔青年科学家遴选方法，设计开发了相应遴选程序，为多个高校与研究所提供青年千人引进服务，切实的服务于我国人才培养与引进。研究了学者的科研履历与学术流动特征，解读学术流动与人才成长的关联与规律。以不同层次自然科学基金立项数据为基础，研究了学者的成长轨迹。项目研究结果有望提升我国人才培养与引进效率。

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