中国西部地震灾害时空对称结构精细化对接研究

To improve the scientific nature of geography, we should continue to evaluate existing theories of space-time symmetry law and to explore real cases to further research natural disasters. Compared to other natural disasters -- such as droughts, floods, and typhoons -- earthquakes not only have temporal symmetry but also exhibit spatial symmetry of epicentral migration. China is the largest country in the world that is prone to the generation and occurrence of intraplate earthquakes, especially in western China. Based on field investigation and geological structure, this study aims to achieve four linkages via the space-time trend judgment model of earthquakes. 1) It will make a fine docking between the space-time symmetry regularity of earthquakes and the active pattern of faults, by integrating spatial structure, temporal structure, and the fault structure of earthquakes in China. 2) It will make a fine docking between the tendency judgement of earthquake occurrence and the active pattern of faults, analyzing the relationship between the space-time symmetry of earthquakes and multi-fault dislocation, taking the case of a Rhombus block that is located between the Xiaojiang and Honghe faults in Sichuan-Yunnan region. 3) It will make a fine docking between the annual scale and the monthly scale in the tendency judgement of earthquake occurrence in West China by improving the algorithm model. 4) It will make a fine docking between the suggestions of decision making and the implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation, by adopting risk regionalization, the tendency judgement, risk management, and other processes. Therefore, it can be said that this study has both academic and realistic significance, and also strengthens China's voice in earthquake science.

不断提高地理学的科学性，仍需要继续挖掘和不断丰富时空规律研究案例。比较地震、旱灾、洪灾、台风等重大自然灾害的时空对称性结构，地震灾害具有一定的时间对称性特点，更具有一定的空间对称性结构。中国是世界上板块内部地震最多的国家，中国大陆的地震主要集中在西部。通过实地调研考察，结合地质构造基础，构建地震趋势判断模型等研究方法，该项目要实现四个精细化对接。通过西部地震灾害时间结构、空间结构、断层结构分析，实现地震灾害时空规律与断层活动的精细化对接。以川滇地区的小江断裂和红河断裂之间的川滇菱形块体为切入点，分层研究地质构造特点与地震时空对称性的关系，实现断层活动与地震趋势判断的精细化对接。构建以地质构造为基础的地震灾害趋势判断模型，实现地震灾害的年度判断与可能发生月份的精细化对接。通过地震风险区划分，地震趋势判断，重点风险区防御对策等环节，实现地震趋势判断意见与政府灾害防御实践的精细化对接。

不断提高地理学的科学性，仍需要继续挖掘和不断丰富时空规律研究案例。中国是世界上板块内部地震最多的国家，中国大陆的地震主要集中在西部。通过实地调研考察，结合地质构造基础，本项目构建了地震趋势判断模型等研究方法，实现了四个精细化对接。结合地震灾害时空对称性分析方法研究了地震灾害时间对称性趋势判断的批量计算功能和地震灾害时空对称性趋势判断过程的优化。通过西部地震灾害时间结构、空间结构、断层结构分析，实现了地震灾害时空规律与断层活动的精细化对接，得到了中国西部地区三大构造区的11条断裂带、4个块体构造的地震时空结构和趋势判断的结果。以川滇地区的小江断裂和红河断裂之间的川滇菱形块体为切入点，分层研究了地质构造特点与地震时空对称性的关系，构建以地质构造为基础的地震灾害趋势判断模型，实现了地震灾害的年度判断与可能发生月份的精细化对接；在年、季尺度上揭示川滇菱块不同分区震-旱-涝时空对称结构，并从太阳黑子、地球自转和海气异常3个角度，探究震-旱-涝发生的相关机理；从地质构造结构与趋势判断相结合的视角，时空趋势判断与地震灾害风险评价相结合的视角，揭示了川滇地震历史活动规律，认识了地震能量释放的周期性，分析了不同构造单元地震未来时空趋势，评估了不同区域地震灾害的风险度，提高了识别地震灾害高风险区的科学性，实现了断层活动与地震趋势判断的精细化对接。通过地震风险区划分，地震趋势判断，重点风险区防御对策等环节，设计了“3C”地震风险管理框架，凝练了灾前“3P”、灾中“3I”、灾后“3R”分阶段管理模式，精准制定各阶段不同救灾主体的灾害风险管理对策，四位一体增强城市韧性，实现了地震趋势判断意见与政府灾害防御实践的精细化对接。

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